I've taken an early look at the fabulous three days of racing we have ahead on Merseyside and hinted at what I'll be backing in the Grand National Betting Tournaments. Be sure to opt-in and play against me and other in the final set of daily qualifying before the £25,000 Jumps Series finale! See my thoughts and and betting angles below...
Thursday 13th April
The action gets underway with the 2m4f Grade One Racehorse Lotto Manifesto Novices’ Chase and it’s tight at the top of the market between STAGE STAR and BANBRIDGE.
The Paul Nicholls-trained Stage Star landed the Turners Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham festival last month, but he was allowed a soft time of things in front and his handler is 0-14 in the Manifesto this century. I’m taking the view that he was flattered at Cheltenham and will be looking to oppose him here.
Banbridge missed the Turners because of the soft ground and should find underfoot conditions more to his liking here, unless they overdo the watering. However, I’ll take the pair on with one at a big price – VISIONARIAN. He tends to struggle in the winter months, recording form figures from November to February of 257026 (0-6). However, his March to October record reads 12152112 (4-8), including figures of 111 (3-3) on his first post-February start each year.
Race two on Thursday is the 2m1f Jewson Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (2.20) in which the Triumph Hurdle form will be tested for the first time.
The Willie Mullins-trained ZENTA, third to stablemate Lossiemouth at Cheltenham, will be all the rage for this but it’s possible that he was flattered under a patient ride and odds of around 7-4 make little appeal.
NUSRET also has form with Lossiemouth, finishing third to that one in the Grade 2 Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown on Boxing Day, and he took his hurdles record on yielding or faster going to two wins from two starts when landing the Adonis at Kempton last time.
The Alder Hey Aintree Bowl Chase (2.55) is an absolute belter, and it will be fascinating to see how SHISHKIN gets on now stepped up to 3m1f after his Ryanair Chase runner-up effort. He broke my heart that day, as I’d banked on 22-1 third Hitman to finish second in the Tote Exacta and Trifecta! He shapes as though the trip will suit, but he’s had hard races the last twice and I’m happy to look elsewhere for the winner.
BRAVEMANSGAME was a gallant second in the Cheltenham Gold Cup but he’s still to win in the spring and might again fine one or two too good.
Gold Cup third CONFLATED has possibilities, as does A PLUS TARD, but I’ll side with AHOY SENOR, a winner at this meeting in each of the past two seasons. He was still in contention when falling six out in the Gold Cup and he’ll be happier in the smaller field.
CONSTITUTION HILL probably needs to be abducted by aliens if he’s to be denied victory in the 2m4f William Hill Aintree Hurdle but there’s over £50k on offer for second place and it should be a good scrap for the silver medal.
EPATANTE was underwhelming at Cheltenham, but she twice chased home stablemate Constitution Hill earlier in the season and she won this race by 14 lengths last year. She could be the one for the Tote Exacta.
The 2m Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase (4.40) has produced its share of shock winners and it could pay to think outside the box. Since 2010, horses who ran in the Grand Annual Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham festival are just one from 59 (the expected number of winners, based on their prices, was between four and five) and that sole winner came back in 2013. This suggests that two of the market leaders – GLOBAL CITIZEN and THIRD TIME LUCKI, third and fourth in the Grand Annual – could prove vulnerable.
Last year’s runner-up DANCING ON MY OWN might be able to go one better, while HASANKEY will come into this if the ground turns soft.
Friday 14th April
Day two commences with the 3m1f Grade 1 Air Charter Services Mildmay Novices’ Chase (1.45), won emphatically by Ahoy Senor last year. We’ve had no winner priced bigger than 11-2 in the past ten years (nine renewals) and GERRI COLOMBE looks a worthy favourite after his short-head defeat to The Real Whacker in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham.
BRONN was only four lengths back in third that day, but I thought he was flattered by racing close to the early pace and I’ll be looking to oppose Willie Mullins’ six-year-old in the Tote Placepot and Exacta.
The Racing Welfare Novices' Limited Handicap Chase
At a bigger price, it might be worth having a small interest on THUNDER ROCK. Olly Murphy’s seven-year-old could never get involved form off the pace in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham last month, coming home just over 22 lengths behind The Real Whacker and Gerri Colombe in sixth place. He jumped better than in his earlier chase starts and the sharp Mildmay course should suit.
The 2m4f William Hill Handicap Hurdle (2.20) looks hard to decipher at this stage though it has been a good race for horses ridden patiently and a close examination of running styles should help us to narrow the field on the day. Nicky Henderson’s NO ORDINARY JOE, runner-up in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham last month, is likely to be high on the shortlist.
At the time of writing, PIC D’ORHY was priced up as the 2-1 favourite for the 2m4f Marsh Chase (3.30) but he was pulled up at this meeting last season and six of his seven highest RPRs (Racing Post Ratings) have come on right-handed tracks.
FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES was 23 lengths behind Shishkin when favourite to beat that one at Ascot in February but has won this race for the past two years and might prove capable of bouncing back. HITMAN has a penchant for finishing second and might be one to bank on to fill that position in the Tote Exacta.
FUGITIF fared best of those to come from off the pace when runner-up in the Stable Plate at Cheltenham and has to be high on the shortlist, as does MILLERS BANK, impressive at this meeting last season. He was only fifth to Shishkin at Ascot but that was his first run following a wind operation, and he’s won twice previously on his second start following wind surgery.
Peter Bowen has a cracking record at Aintree in chases/bumpers over trips of 2m6f or shorter, scoring with seven of the 33 qualifiers this century for a profit of £90.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. He landed the Randox Supports Race Against Dementia Topham Handicap Chase (4.05) with Mac Tottie last year and might be able to repeat the trick with EQUUS DANCER.
The Dan Skelton-trained GREY DAWNING impressed me when scoring at Kempton on his penultimate start, as he came from further off the pace than ideal. He landed the Grade 2 Leamington Novices’ Hurdle by five lengths on heavy ground at Warwick next time, a win that took his career score to 112111 (5-6). His sole defeat came here at Aintree, but it was on his seasonal debut, and he’ll be of interest if lining up in the Winners Wear Cavani Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (4.40).
Friday’s finale, the 2m Abersoch Land And Sea Handicap Hurdle (5.15) looks typically competitive but Paul Nicholls won this 12 months ago and I like the claims of his top weight KNAPPERS HILL. The seven-year-old has recorded form figures in the month of April of 111 (3-3), including a win at this meeting in 2021.
Saturday 15th April
JONBON is likely to be all the rage for the 2m Grade 1 EFT Systems Maghull Novices’ Chase (1.45) after his Arkle runner-up effort to El Fabiolo. He won at this meeting last year after chasing home stablemate Constitution Hill at Cheltenham. If there’s to be a shock it could come from the up-in-class FUSAIN, who bolted up by 35 lengths from the sole other finisher at Catterick last time.
Patient tactics are what’s usually required for the 3m Village Hotels Handicap Hurdle and, last year, the first seven finishers all came from midfield or further back. MILL GREEN, third that day, fares best of the British-trained runners when a 22-1 third in the Pertemps Final and should be thereabouts once more.
The JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle (3.35) could see the Nicky Henderson-trained MARIE’S ROCK bid to atone for her Cheltenham flop where she was a 15-length seven of nine behind Honeysuckle in the Mares’ Hurdle. Her last two defeats (a seventh and a pulled up) were both followed by a win.
Stayers’ Hurdle third TEAHUPOO probably challenged wider than ideal at Cheltenham, as did fifth-placed HOME BY THE LEE. I’ll take the last-named to reverse the form.
The 3m1f William Hill Handicap Chase (4.15) has produced winners at 50-1 and 28-1 in the recent years but BEAUPORT, my main fancy, won’t be in that price bracket (12-1 at the time of writing). He can be forgiven his Kim Muir ninth as he raced closer to the strong early pace than ideal.
SHAKEM UP’ARRY fared second best of those to come from off the pace when third in the Stable Plate at Cheltenham last month and he was placed at this meeting last term (albeit over a much shorter trip).
At the time of writing (Tuesday afternoon) my Randox Grand National Handicap Chase (5.15) ‘shortlist’ consisted of 15 horses. The main fancy at this stage is OUR POWER, who rarely runs a bad race on flat tracks.
Ultima Handicap Chase winner CORACH RAMBLER looks the perfect type for the race and holds obvious claims, while last year’s winner NOBLE YEATS will be going in my Placepot. Those looking for a Mon Mome-type result might want to consider the Willie Mullins-trained RECITE A PRAYER, whose record from March to October reads 234112102 (3-9).
