Ahead of the blockbuster World Pool card at Ascot on Saturday I've assessed the contenders and conditions and hinted at some of my World Pool betting angles for the King George VI Day Tournament, which you can opt-in to here.
13:15 – Greatwood Charity 25th Anniversary EBF Crocker Bulteel Maiden Stakes (Class 2)
At the time of writing (Thursday morning) the ground at Ascot was described as soft, good to soft in places, but with dry, warm and breezy weather forecast between now and Saturday it should be quicker come post time for this 6f maiden.
The stalls are in the centre where the ground is slowest according to the latest GoingStick reading. It’s quicker towards the far side and it will be fascinating to see where they elect to race.
The Richard Hannon yard has sent out seven winners (from 11 runners) in the past ten renewals of the Crocker Bulteel and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £18.19. Those making their racecourse debut recorded form figures of 14711111 (6-8) and TIMEBAR is the stable’s sole representative from three entries at the five-day stage.
Night Of Thunder is a sire to keep on-side in juvenile turf races, scoring with 58 of his 313 (18.5%) representatives in Britain and Ireland for a profit of £45.90 to a £1 level stake at SP. On officially good to soft or softer going only the strike-rate improves to 22.9% thanks to 25 winners from 109 runners (+£78.63).
Kevin Ryan’s WELCOME DREAM, the mount of Ryan Moore, fits the bill.
13:50 – Bateaux London Princess Margaret Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies)
In the past ten years, horses who prepped at Newmarket are seven from 28 in this Group 3 contest for a profit of £24.32 to a £1 level stake at SP.
CRY FICTION, runner-up to the impressive Star Of Mystery in Listed company last time, qualifies on this angle but she’s yet to encounter soft conditions and that could be a problem for the daughter of El Kabeir.
SYMBOLOGY overcame greenness – she jumped a path at one stage – to make a winning debut at York earlier this month where she had the well-fancied Nighteyes back in second place. She can take this before a return trip to York for next month’s Group 2 Lowther Stakes.
14:25 – Longines Valiant Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies And Mares)
Ten runners do battle in this Group 3 contest, and it will be interesting to see if the late/wide route is favoured, as it was in the majority of races on the round course at last month’s Royal meeting. Four of the last five winners were described as ‘held up in rear’ or ‘held up in last’, which puts me off RANDOM HARVEST, second by a neck after making the running on the straight mile at Royal Ascot.
The Rossdales Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 4)
Newmarket 13.4.2022
AMEYNAH, a daughter of Exceed And Excel, is not certain to appreciate the recent rain and a better alternative could be Johnny Murtagh’s CADEAU BELLE. She won her maiden on soft ground and arrived on the scene late when following up in Listed company at Navan last month. The booking of Jamie Spencer strongly suggests that patient tactics will again be employed.
SEA OF THIEVES fared best of those to come from off the pace at Newbury last time and is also worthy of consideration.
15:00 – Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2)
Overview
With 27 runners due to go to post for this 7f heritage handicap we’ll get the best indication yet of any draw bias. This race has thrown up its share of shock results in recent years – Mark Johnston saddled consecutive 33-1 shots in Galician (2013) and Heavy Metal (2014), while Richard Fahey’s Stamp Hill returned at 50-1 when taking the 2017 renewal, paying a massive £112.90 on the Tote. That said, the last four winners have been easier to find (8-1, 9-2f, 9-2f and 7-1).
Recent form
Seven of the last ten winners finished first, second or third in their prep race. Five winners ran at Ascot on their latest start and three at Newmarket. All ten winners prepped in a handicap, those who didn’t were 0-34.
Running style
Unusually for a big-field handicap on the straight course at Ascot it paid to be handy, with seven of the ten winners making the running or racing prominently.
Current market leader BIGGLES, a comfortable winner of the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket’s July Festival last time, holds obvious claims though ROPEY GUEST, was badly drawn for the third year in a row when runner-up in that contest and might be able to improve on last year’s tenth.
RHYTHM MASTER trailed home last of 29 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes but the ground was way too quick for him, and he’d have a squeak if it didn’t dry out too much.
MISTER BLUEBIRD has a win and a third place to his name from two previous course visits and could also go well.
15:40 – King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes (Group 1)
Aside from seasonal debuts, AUGUSTE RODIN has form figures of 11111 (5-5), though he was hardly impressive when accounting for tenderly-ridden stablemate Adelaide River in the Irish Derby.
HUKUM missed Royal Ascot because of the fast going but looks set to encounter his preferred underfoot conditions. Since fitted with a tongue-tie, the Owen Burrows-trained six-year-old has form figures on turf of 1111711 (6-7), with the defeat by less than two lengths when 10-1 for the Dubai Sheema Classic.
KING OF STEEL found only Auguste Rodin half a length too good in the Derby on his belated reappearance and impressed when landing the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot.
EMILY UPJOHN had no answer to Paddington in the Coral-Eclipse when she went without the hood, worn when successful over 1m4f on her previous two starts. The return to the longer trip will help but the headgear is again missing and this will be her third race in relatively quick succession, which is a concern given her great record when fresh.
PYLEDRIVER returned from 11 months off the track to land the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot five weeks ago but could ‘bounce’ here. He has backed up previous wins after breaks of 162 and 336 days but when returned to the track within six weeks of a previous victory his record reads 4th, 7th, 11thand 3rd.
WESTOVER recorded a career-best RPR (Racing Post Rating) when successful in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud last time and it’s worth remembering that he started as the 13-8 favourite for this race last year, bombing out after being ridden too aggressively. If he settles in the early stages, he could surprise.
16:15 – Flexjet Pat Eddery Stakes (Listed Race)
ANCIENT WISDOM will likely head the market after his comfortable wins at Haydock and Newmarket, latterly when starting as the 1-6 favourite. However, better value might lie with Night Of Thunder colt AL MUSMAK, who arrived on the scene late when defying a market drift to score over course and distance on his recent debut.
16:50 – Betfred Handicap (Class 2)
LATTAM, winner of the Irish Lincolnshire on his reappearance, did well to finish second to Jimi Hendrix in the Spring Cup at Newbury next time, as his high draw was a disadvantage. He overcame a tricky stall 1 draw to score narrowly over 1m at Newcastle on his most recent outing and could still have more improvement to come.
Ryan Moore is a fascinating booking – in the past 15 years he’s 45 from 173 when riding in handicaps for William Haggas and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £41.15 to a £1 level stake at SP.
17:25 – Whispering Angel Handicap (Class 2)
RHYTHM N HOOVES, winner of the Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes over course and distance at the Royal meeting, is the obvious one, though KHUNAN looked in need of a return to the minimum trip when fourth from a poor draw in Scottish Stewards’ Cup last time and might offer more in the way of value.
That's it from, to see all my best bets on Saturday tune into the Betting Tournament Live Blog.
