The four and final day of the Cheltenham Festival is upon us, I've taken a look at the card and tried to find a few winners on the final day.
13:30 – JCB Triumph Hurdle
The Willie Mullins-trained BLOOD DESTINY made it two from two since leaving France for Ireland when sauntering home by 18 lengths at Fairyhouse in mid-January. That performance was backed up by the clock and he holds strong claims.
LOSSIEMOUTH lost her 100% record when runner-up to stablemate Gala Marceau in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at the DRF but looked unlucky – she was short of room when the pace quickened and was shuffled right back. She stayed on well once finding daylight and is another with obvious claims.
Selection: Blood Destiny
14:10 – McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle
Since 2011, had we bet every County Hurdle runner trained by Willie Mullins or Dan Skelton we’d have landed eight of our 54 bets and made a profit of £70.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. Both yards have multiple entries and while the preview night drums have been beating for the Mullins-trained Sharjah, I’d rather side with Skelton’s PEMBROKE, who will relish a strongly-run race in the mud. He was beaten into second place when 5-4 favourite here on Trials Day but that was over the extended 2m4f trip in Grade 2 company.
Winter Fog ridden by Danny Mullins leads eventual winner Panda Boy ridden by JJ Slevin, red cap, away from the last in The Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle
WINTER FOG started as a co-favourite for last season’s Pertemps Final, finishing fourth. He left Emmet Mullins for Willie Mullins subsequently and won well over two miles at Leopardstown over Christmas. He misses the Coral Cup for this and has an obvious chance.
Selection: Pembroke
14:50 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
Stats/trends
Recent form
Nine of the past ten winners finished first, second or third in their prep race. Seven of the past ten winners ran in a Graded contest last time out and backing all 101 qualifiers would have returned a profit of £67.38 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Days since last run
Those who raced within the past four week are 0-36 in the past ten years. All ten winners raced between 29 and 90 days ago.
Market position last time out
Those who were sent off as favourite (including joint and co-favourite) in their prep race are just two from 56 for a loss of £31.00.
Prep race
Those who ran in Irish Grade 2 contest last time out are five from 18 for a profit of £91.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who ran in an Irish Grade 1 are one from 29 for a loss of £14.00.
EMBASSY GARDENS bolted up by 35 lengths when the 5-6 favourite for a novice hurdle at Thurles last time. However, that was a poor race – the 5-2 second favourite looked to have a physical issue and finished tailed off and the runner-up, Kilbree Warrior, was beaten by 41 lengths in Listed company next time. He makes little appeal at single-figure odds.
CORBETTS CROSS has proved progressive on deep ground this winter and comfortably landed a 3m handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse in mid-January. He left Eugene O’Sullivan for Emmet Mullins after that win and scored narrowly in a Grade 2 at Naas on his stable debut on February 26th, having missed an intended run ten days earlier due to coughing. His trainer hasn’t had long to freshen him up for this.
THREE CARD BRAG took his record on soft or heavy going to 1121 (3-4) when comfortably landing odds of 8-11 over 2m3.5f at Fairyhouse last time. He’s been very well supported in the past week or so and looks set to appreciate the step up in trip.
FAVORI DE CHAMPDOU completed his hat-trick when pulling clear on the run-in to land a 2m7f Grade 2 contest at Limerick last time. The recent rain is in his favour.
HIDDENVALLY LAKE was narrowly denied by Montys Star when 8-13 favourite for the Grade 3 Mercedes-Benz Novice Hurdle at Clonmel last time when unsuited to making his own running in a small-field tactical affair. His earlier wins came when taking a lead and the hurly-burly of this race will suit.
ABSOLUTE NOTIONS chased home Good Land over 2m6f at the DRF and will appreciate the extra couple of furlongs at Cheltenham. He disappointed on soft ground at Naas on his penultimate start and the recent rain is no help.
MONTYS STAR had half a length to spare over Hiddenvalley Lake when breaking his duck in Grade 3 company at Clonmel and should have more to offer.
SANDOR CLEGANE landed a Punchestown maiden hurdle in facile fashion before his third to Ballymore hope Good Land in Grade 1 company at the DRF (2m6f, yielding). He’s not certain to appreciate this step up in trip.
Point winner STAY AWAY FAY kept on strongly to make a winning hurdles debut at Newbury in November (2m4.5f, good) and was only beaten by one length into second place in the Grade 2 River Don at Doncaster next time. He’d have place claims on good ground but that’s looks very unlikely.
COOL SURVIVOR fared best of those to come from off the pace when a 25-1 fourth to Good Land at the DRF and his earlier 3m Cork second to Hiddenvalley Lake suggests the return to a longer trip will suit. Gordon Elliott’s six-year-old is respected.
Point-to-point winner ROCK MY WAY ran a fine race on his Rules debut, finishing second at 66-1 to Weveallbeencaught in a maiden hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. He built on that with a soft-ground win in Grade 2 company on Trials Day and the step up to 3m should suit.
WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT showed a fine attitude to repel Rocky My Way at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day but bombed out completely at the Dublin Racing Festival, trailing home last of the eight runners, 37 lengths behind Good Land. It’s possible that he did too much too soon that day and might do better back at Cheltenham. His hurdles debut third to Hermes Allen in Grade 2 company at Cheltenham’s November meeting and he could yet prove up to this level.
Selection: Hiddenvalley Lake
15:30 –Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup
Willie Mullins’ GALOPIN DES CHAMPS made it five wins from five completed starts over fences when staying on well to land odds of 30-100 in the Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF). That was his first chase outing beyond an extended 2m5f, and the big question is ‘will he stay the trip?’. He has an extra two and a half furlongs and a stiff uphill finish to contend with this time, though there was a similar doubt surrounding A Plus Tard before he bolted up in this race 12 months ago, and I’m not going to oppose him on stamina grounds. He did fall at the festival last year – when clear from Bob Olinger n the Turners Novices’ Chase – and has yet to compete in a big-field chase.
Last year’s winner A PLUS TARD has not been seen since pulling up when 1-2 favourite for the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November. Brilliant though he is, he’s hard to recommend after his latest effort.
NOBLE YEATS provided Sam Waley-Cohen with a dream end to his career when taking last season’s Grand National at 50-1 and advertised his Gold Cup credentials with a three-length verdict over Dashel Drasher in the Many Clouds Chase at Aintree in early December. He could never strike a meaningful blow when third to Ahoy Senor in the Cotswold Chase on Trials Day but will be plugging on at the business end and has frame claims.
BRAVEMANSGAME has gone off the boil in the spring previously, recording form figures in March/April of 324 (0-3), as compared to 2111111111 (9-10) from October to February since undergoing wind surgery. He seems ideally suited by flat tracks and I’m happy to ignore his claims at odds of around 7-1.
STATTLER comfortably landed an uncompetitive renewal of the National Hunt Challenge Cup at last season’s Cheltenham festival and took his record over fences to 11122 (4-5) when chasing home Galopin Des Champs at the DRF. This stiffer stamina test will suit and he looks solid each-way material.
AHOY SENOR jumped out to his right (as he usually does on left-handed tracks) but still managed to win the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase here on Trials Day, rallying gamely to regain the lead after dropping back to fourth place at one stage. On paper, he should be suited by right-handed tracks but his record in that direction reads U25 (0-3). Perhaps the key is good to soft or faster going (based on race times, not the official verdict) and fitness (at least two runs in the past three months)? His record under such conditions stands at 11151 (4-5), with the defeat in the King George this season. His record in the spring reads 1121 (3-4), with the defeat by L'Homme Presse in last season's Brown Advisory and, after initially being highly sceptical about his Gold Cup prospects, I'm warming to him.
CONFLATED took the Ryanair route last season and I had a good bet on him to finish second to Allaho in that contest. He looked booked for the runner-up position until he fell at the second last fence. He ran out a comfortable winner of the Grade 1 Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas and has to be respected.
MINELLA INDO narrowly accounted for Statler at Tramore on New Year’s Day and won this race in 2021. He was 15 lengths behind A Plus Tard when runner-up last year and would have a squeak if it’s genuinely soft or slower.
Mudlark SOUNDS RUSSIAN traded at short odds in running when second to Ahoy Senor in the Cotswold Chase but has yet to win south of Sedgefield and his jumping still gives cause for concern. That says, the rain has come in time and he’d have each-way claims on soft or heavy.
ELDORADO ALLEN was ridden to pick up the pieces in the 2021 Arkle, staying on to finish second to Shishkin at 33-1. He also ran with great credit at last year’s festival, coming home about 15 lengths behind Allaho when third at 14-1 in the Ryanair chase. He sat closer to the early pace than ideal that day, as he did when a modest fifth to Zanza in the Denman Chase. He could outrun his huge odds.
Selection: Eldorado Allen
16:50 – Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase
Willie Mullins has won both previous runnings of this race and ALLEGORIE DE VASSY is the 13-8 favourite to maintain her trainer’s 100% record. The six-year-old is four from four since leaving France for Ireland, though all those wins came on right-handed tracks and she was noted as jumping out to her right when bolting up at odds of 1-8 at Thurles last time. She could prove vulnerable at left-handed Cheltenham.
IMPERVIOUS was found out when running in Grade 1/Grade 2 level over hurdles, failing to place in three such starts, but looks a better chaser than hurdler. She won eased down from 13 rivals on her chase debut at Wexford (2m, heavy) before an impressive success over Dinoblue in Grade 2 company at Cork. She maintained her 100% record over fences when taking on the boys in the Grade 3 Madigan Group Novice Chase at Punchestown in January – gamely denying Journey With me by half a length – and she could prove hard to beat.
JEREMYS FLAME struggled behind Blue Lord in Grade 1 company over 2m1f at Leopardstown at Christmas but appreciated the stiffer test of stamina at Huntingdon next time where she comfortably accounted for Zambella and Pink Legend. She has more chase experience than the majority of her rivals and her chase record in mares-only company stands at F322121F1 (3-9). The jumping problems that blighted her early chase career now seem to be behind her and she has each-way claims.
Second-season chaser MAGIC DAZE trailed home 62 lengths behind Edwardstone when 12-1 for last season’s Arkle but has improved since fitted with a tongue-tie, scoring at Punchestown last April and landing the Listed Opera Hat Mares Chase at Naas last time. This front-runner seems happiest on left-handed tracks and could go well. She ran well at this meeting two years ago, finishing second at 22-1 in the Dawn Run.
The Venetia Williams-trained PINK LEGEND ran a blinder in this race last year when a half-length second to Elimay at 33-1. He struggled in her early starts this term but bounced back to score at Exeter on February 12th. It looks to be a case of the faster the ground the better for the nine-year-old and if we only consider her record on good to soft or quicker going (according to race times, not the official description) then her record becomes 111226341 (4-9). The recent rain is far from ideal.
ZAMBELLA fared second best of the British-trained runners when fourth in this race last year and would have been best of the Brits had she not fallen in 2021 when still in place contention. She had no answer to Jeremys Flame when favourite to beat that one at Huntingdon last time but could sneak into the frame at a big price.
Selection: Impervious
