It's finally here, the Cheltenham Festival! And, with the four days of the Festival come more Betting Tournaments. Ahead of a fantastic first day of action I've listed all my angles of attack and some useful trends to find a winner. Fancy playing in the Tournaments? You can opt-in here.
13:30 – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
FACILE VEGA, as short as 8-11 before his DRF (Dublin Racing Festival) flop has been well supported this week and is back into 2-1 favouritism. The Willie Mullins-trained six-year-old, winner of last season’s Champion Bumper, paid for going off too hard at Leopardstown, trailing home 20 lengths behind the winner. It’s rare for a horse who was beaten in their prep race to win the Supreme and he’s difficult to support at such a short price.
MARINE NATIONALE took his form to a new level winning when taking advantage of a below-par Champ Kiely in the Royal Bond, landing that Fairyhouse Grade 1 contest by a head from Irish Point. Champ Kiely, who started as the 10-11 favourite, was over four lengths back in fourth but raced freely under restraint and bounced back to win the Lawlor’s of Naas when reverting to front-running tactics, reversing the form with Irish Point. Marine Nationale is now unbeaten in four career starts and makes the shortlist despite coming into this off a break of 100 days.
TAHMURAS was impressive in winning the Tolworth at Sandown and he aims to follow the path of last year's Supreme winner Constitution Hill. He travelled strongly throughout that race and would have won more easily but for jumping errors at the last two flights. He will have to jump better to be competitive this time but this uncomplicated horse deserves his place in the line-up.
The Willie Mullins-trained IMPAIRE ET PASSE has won both hurdle starts impressively taking the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at odds of 1-3 at Punchestown last time despite jumping out to his left on the right-handed track. That race was used by Mullins stars Min, Vautour and Douvan in the past and he looks to be the ideal sort for this race. However, the current exchange betting (80.0 for this race but only 3.2 for the Ballymore) suggests he’ll go for the longer race.
HIGH DEFINITION, a highly touted/talented Flat horse and one-time Derby favourite, made no mistake on his first start over jumps, winning a well contested maiden hurdle at Leopardstown. He hinted that he might prove best right-handed that day and we didn’t get to learn a great deal more at the DRF where he unseated at the fourth flight. He’s tightened up in the betting in recent days and remains of interest.
The Charlie Longsdon-trained RARE EDITION comfortably landed a well-contested novice at Kempton on Boxing Day, putting him in contention for this race. That form hasn’t been tested but the time was fast, and he’d have each-way prospects if running here instead of in the Ballymore.
IL ETAIT TEMPS was pitched straight into Grade 1 company on his debut for Willie Mullins last February, keeping on into a 40-1 third behind stablemate Vauban in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle. He ended last season with his maiden status intact and has improved for the application of a hood/switch to more prominent tactics this term, landing odds of 1-7 at Thurles before chasing home Facile Vega in Grade 1 company back at Leopardstown over Christmas. He reversed the form with his stablemate at the DRF, coming home over nine lengths ahead of Inthepocket and looks the one to beat.
Selection: Il Etait Temps
14:10 – Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
Stats/trends
Prep race
The last ten winners had scored on their most recent outing, while those who were beaten in their prep race had a 0-35 record. Backing all the last-time-out winners would have returned a profit of £27.28 to a £1 level stake at SP thanks to the 33-1 success of Western Warhorse in 2014.
Age
The last ten winners were 6yos (5-22), 7yos (4-40) or 8yos (1-9).
Handicap form
Those who had run in a handicap chase previously are just 1-20 in the past ten years (Edwardstone bucked the trend last year) and if we go back to the beginning of this century the score is just 1-37, though most were big prices.
SP Rank
Seven of the last ten winners started as favourite.
Runner-up position
Interestingly, when those seven favourites won, the horses who chased them home in second place were described by the Racing Post as…
Held up in rear (25-1)
Towards rear (33-1)
In rear (14-1)
Held up (12-1)
Led (9-1)
Held up (33-1)
Tracked leaders (33-1)
Nine of the last ten Arkle runners-up finished second or third in their prep run, with the other falling. All ten ran in Grade 1 or Grade 2 company last time and six were trained in Ireland.
JONBON arrives here with a perfect three-from-three haul over fences though can hardly be described as battle-hardened, having beaten a total of just six rivals. His record, including his point-to-point form, now reads 1111121111 (9-10), with the sole defeat a 22-length thrashing by stablemate Constitution Hill in last year’s Supreme. The lack of big-field chase form will probably not be an issue, as it looks like this race will cut up. He’s going to be hard to beat.
DYSART DYNAMO went into last year’s Cheltenham festival on the back of four straight wins and started as 9-4 joint-favourite (with Constitution Hill) in the Supreme Novice’ Hurdle. He was still cruising in that race when falling three out and his subsequent Punchestown defeat is easily forgiven as he raced freely and might have needed a confidence booster. He bolted up by 28 lengths in a small-field beginners’ chase at Leopardstown on his reappearance/chase debut but disappointed behind El Fabiolo at the DRF and needs to bounce back.
EL FABIOLO was only a neck behind Jonbon when second in the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree last spring and the hood, that he wore for the first time that day, has been left off for his two chase wins. He impressed when giving Banbridge a ten-length beating in the Irish Arkle at the DRF and he’s the obvious threat to Jonbon.
SAINT ROI had always seemed best late off a strong pace over hurdles, ideally in a big field, and didn’t get conditions to suit in a host of Grade 1 races last term in which he usually stayed on to finish third or fourth to the likes of Honeysuckle. Forcing tactics were employed for his chase debut when runner-up to Fil Dor at Navan in November and he duly reversed the for in Grade 1 company at Leopardstown on Boxing Day when the usual patient tactics were employed. He unseated at the fifth in the Irish Arkle but has solid each-way prospects.
Selection: Jonbon
14:50 – Ultima Handicap Chase
TEA CLIPPER grabbed fourth place at 12-1 in this race last year when I made him my Nap of the meeting and that form has received several boosts, with the winner/runner-up both placing in the Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Newbury and the third/fifth (Oscar Elite and Our Power) winning big races last month. Tea Clipper, best fresh on good to soft or quicker going, has been given a light campaign this season, and the break since late November can be viewed positively. The recent rain is a worry but he should still be thereabouts.
CORACH RAMBLER won this off a 6lb lower mark last season and looks sure to give a good account in the Aintree showpiece. He’s been well supported in recent days and looks another solid option.
CLOUDY GLEN has plenty of form at this time of year, including a 33-1 runner-p effort in the Kim Muir two years ago. He returned from a layoff with a solid third to shorter-priced stablemate and Grand National contender Quick Wave at Haydock last month and should give a good account.
Selection: Tea Clipper
15:30 - Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)
Last year’s Supreme winner CONSTITUTION HILL came 17 lengths clear of stablemate Epatante in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton and has now won his five starts under Rules by a combined margin of 77 lengths. He looks a freak of nature and is going to be incredibly difficult to beat.
STATE MAN made a mockery of his handicap mark of 141 when taking last year’s County Hurdle from First Street and has won four Grade 1s from four subsequent starts. It’s going to be fascinating to see what tactics are employed in order to try and beat Constitution Hill.
VAUBAN has seen the backend of stablemate State Man the last twice but last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner will appreciate the likely strong gallop and has each-way prospects.
I LIKE TO MOVE IT has improved since finishing almost 20 lengths behind State Man when 18th of 26 in last season’s County Hurdle (run on the New Course) and it’s worth remembering that his hurdles record on Cheltenham’s Old Course reads 111 (3-3). He’s another with frame claims if avoiding an early battle for the lead with State Man.
EPATANTE won this in 2020 and has placed behind Honeysuckle in both subsequent renewals. She’d have a great chance of finishing second to Constitution Hill and picking up £95k for her trouble if coming here but the betting suggests she’ll go for the mares’ race instead.
Selection: Constitution Hill
16:10 – Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
Prep race
12 of the 15 winners won their prep race, one was second and two more were third
Trainers
Willie Mullins won nine of the ten renewals between 2009 and 2018 but his stranglehold has been loosened in recent years and he’s been responsible for the beat favourite in the past four runnings
Running Style
Eight of the last ten winners came from midfield or further back (the exceptions were Apple’s Jade in 2017 and Honeysuckle in 2020). Plenty of outsiders have sneaked into the frame under patient rides.
MARIE’S ROCK won this race 12 months ago and looked better than ever when defying a 6lb penalty to comfortably land the Relkeel Hurdle here on New Year’s Day. She clearly loves Cheltenham, is obviously suited to the demands of this race and has every chance of winning it again. However, the current betting suggest that she’ll go for the Stayers’ Hurdle.
EPATANTE, winner of the Champion Hurdle in 2020 and placed behind Honeysuckle in that contest at the past two festivals, is likely to avoid a clash with stablemate Constitution Hill and divert to this race. She bolted up at Doncaster in late January, the first time she’d tackled mares’ company since failing to face the first-time hood when ninth in the 2019 Dawn Run, and won’t have a problem with the step back up in trip.
The Willie Mullins-trained BRANDY LOVE has always been held in the highest regard by connections and she showed why when slamming Love Envoi by eight lengths in Grade 1 company at Fairyhouse last spring. She jumped out to her left when only third at right-handed Punchestown on her belated reappearance last month, as she had done when beaten at Fairyhouse last season, and the return to a left-handed track will obviously suit.
Harry Fry’s LOVE ENVOI landed last season’s 2m1f Dawn Run – the mares’ novice - at the Cheltenham festival and, according to RPRs (Racing Post Ratings) has improved with virtually every one of her nine career starts. She’s very uncomplicated and the stamina test this race provides should suit her well, having relished the hill at Sandown over 2m4f on heavy ground last time. She’s going to need another career-best performance to take this but who’s to say she can’t provide one?
ECHOES IN RAIN usually takes a keen grip in her races but that didn’t stop her scoring in impressive fashion at Naas last time. However, that was a Grade 3 contest over a trip of 1m7.5f and the step back up to 2m4f is against her. She was only fifth to Marie’s Rock in this race last year..
HONEYSUCKLE has been an absolute superstar of the sport, winning her first 16 starts including the past two Champion Hurdles and this race in 2020. She tasted defeat for the first time when only third behind Teahupoo and Klassical Dream at Fairyhouse in December (2m3.5f) and had no answer to State Man in the Irish Champion Hurdle at the DRF. She could make the frame but I prefer others for win purposes.
SHEWEARSITWELL has gone from strength to strength this season, producing her best performance yet when upsetting 8-15 favourite Queens Brook in a Grade 3 mares’ race over 2m4f at Leopardstown in late December. Stamina is her strong suit – she won a Pertemps Qualifier over 3m on her penultimate start – and will be a danger to all if running in this race rather than taking in the handicap route and the Pertemps Final.
TELMESOMETHINGGIRL landed the mares’ novice in 2021 and was bang in contention when brought down two out in this race last year. She has gone chasing this season but despite winning last time, she has not looked a natural over fences. She might come here instead of the mares’ chase but looks vulnerable whatever her target.
Selection: Brandy Love
16:50- Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Since 2011, had we simply bet all Fred Winter runners who finished fourth or worse in their prep race we’d have found seven winners from 77 bets and made a huge profit of £183.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Patient tactics are also an asset in a race usually run at a strong gallop and the Paul Nolan-trained METAMORPHEUS fits the bill. His trainer rarely wastes ammunition in Cheltenham festival handicaps, sending out two winners (20-1 and 12-1) from 18 runners this century for a profit of £16.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. The beaten horses included a 33-1 runner-up, 11-2 third, 8-1 fourth, two fifths (11-1 and 8-1) and a pair of sixths (100-1 and 7-1), He caught the eye when a tenderly-handled five-length fifth to Sir Allen on last month’s stable debut.
SHARED is two from two left-handed and also has possibilities, along with SUNDIAL (punted from 40-1 into 12-1 this week) and MR FREEDOM.
Selection: Metamorpheus
17:30 – National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Novice’s Chase (Grade 2)
Previously a Listed contest, this race was awarded Grade 2 status in 2017 when 16-1 shot Tiger Roll led home runners priced at 50-1 and 33-1 in what was a huge Placepot-buster (it was the sixth race on the card then, it’s now the seventh). Smaller/classier fields are now the norm, with Stattler, 8-1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, seeing off just five rivals when taking last year’s contest and subsequent Grade 1 scorer Galvin landing this in 2021. Many of the likely entries also have the option of the Brown Advisory.
Key Stats and Trends
Experience
Since this became a Grade 2 contest five of the six winner had raced at least five times over fences. Last year’s winner Stattler was the exception.
Days Since Last Run
Three of the last six winners had not run for at least 90 days and backing them blind would have returned a profit of 28.50. Those who had raced within the past six weeks were just one from 41, with those who raced between one and 28 days ago zero from 27.
Trainers
Gordon Elliott has dominated this race in recent years.
Jockeys
Jamie Codd and Patrick Mullins have both won this race three times, from 11 and 15 rides respectively, with Codd having a £1 level stakes profit of £22.00 and Mullins £0.75.
GAILLARD DU MESNIL is in his second season over fences and scores highly on experience. He has shown mountains of ability over fences so far, being third in last year’s Brown Advisory and easily winning the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase at Christmas. He was third in last year’s Irish National over 3m5f, so the 3m6f of this race will pose no problem, and he’s going to take plenty of beating.
Gordon Elliott said this race was the plan for CHEMICAL ENERGY immediately after his easy course victory in October. He has jumped fluently in his four chases up to now, which is crucial given there are 23 fences to negotiate here. His trainer has a great recent record in this race, and I’m inclined to forgive last month’s comprehensive defeat at Naas as the soft ground didn’t suit. The recent rain is an obvious worry.
RAMILLIES is one of the most inexperienced chasers on show, having only had two runs in this sphere under Rules. He’s always been held in high regard, running in the Champion Bumper and Grade 1 novice hurdles. He was impressive in winning his chase debut at Thurles, and although placed second, his run when first past the post in the Grade 3 Finlay Ford at Naas recently was an excellent effort. Stamina and jumping are his forte so the test of this race should be ideal.
John McConnell’s seven-year-old MAHLER MISSION made all for a comfortable ten-length verdict at Navan in January, after which jockey Ben Harvey said “He’s a proper stayer”. He has a touch of class, landing a Grade 2 hurdle on good ground at Doncaster last year, and could go well despite never having tackled Graded company over fences.
Jonathan Sweeney’s eight-year-old CHURCHSTONEWARRIOR is admirably consistent, having placed in the first three in 13 of his 14 career starts (including his sole point-to-point run). He produced a career-best performance when finishing second in the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase last time and the longer trip should be ideal for him. However, it’s hard to see him turning around Christmas form with Gaillard Du Mesnil
Selection: Gaillard Du Mesnil
