Back again to preview another World Pool day, Andrew Mount gives his thoughts on all the races at the Curragh on Sunday, including what he is backing in the Irish Derby Betting Tournament.
Sunday’s Irish Derby card commences with the 6f GAIN Railway Stakes (1.50) – a Group 2 contest for two-year-olds. Surprisingly, this is a top juvenile race that hasn’t been dominated by Aidan O’Brien, who has sent out two winners from 17 runners in the past ten renewals for a loss of £7.10 to a £1 level stake at SP. He has five of the 12 entries, but it could pay to look elsewhere for the winner.
Backing all last-time out winners in the same period would have seen us hit seven winners from 36 bets for a profit of £70.17, though that was mostly down to 66-1 scorer Law Of Indices in 2020.
BUCANERO FUERTE was beaten on his latest start but that was when a fine one-length 16-1 third of 20 to River Tiber in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot and Adrian Murray’s colt looks the obvious starting point when assessing this race.
The 6f Jebel Ali Racecourse & Stables Dash Stakes (2.25) has not been a race for shocks since its inception, with all seven previous winners starting at odds of 4-1 or shorter. All of them were beaten in their prep race, though three (from just six runners) were dropping in class from Group 1 level (+£2.71 to a £1 level stake at SP). Aidan O’Brien is one from seven (-£5.00).
The Michael Dods-trained COMMANCHE FALLS often comes good at this time of year, winning in June or July in each of the four seasons he’s been racing. He also does well when travelling from than 100 miles from his Yorkshire base, recording form figures of 4611611170U12323 (6-16) for a profit of £49.83 and he’d be my selection at this early stage.
The big question ahead of the - Dubai Duty Free Rockingham Stakes (3.00) – a 5f Premier Handicap – is ‘where do we want to be drawn?’ Last year, three of the first four finishers came from high draws and 2021 winner Urban Beat was drawn top-of-the-shop in stall 17 of 17. Siding with the highest-drawn runner could be a good angle for the Tote Placepot, as the last three have won or placed.
British-trained runners have traditionally fared well and plenty look set to make the trip over the Irish Sea, including Declan Carroll’s SHEIKH MAZ MAHOOD. His trainer won this back in 2013 with Whozthecat, though the son of Fast Company could use some rain. We’ve also seen several horses run well in this contest in consecutive years, making last year’s 16-1 runner-up BIG GOSSEY of interest. He emerged best of those drawn in single-figure stalls (first four drawn 13, 3, 18 and 15) and very nearly went one better in another Premier Handicap – the 6.5f Scurry Stakes – when returned to the Curragh for his next start but found Mr Wagyu a head too good. He gained compensation with a 5f course success last August and clearly loves this venue.
AUGUSTE RODIN understandably dominates the antepost betting for the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (3.40), though his patient running style is rarely ideal for the Curragh. Derby also-ran Sovereign was backed from 66-1 into 33-1 when making most of the running to win this in 2019 and the pace bias has been stronger than ever at the Curragh this season.
We’ve had 23 races over a distance of one mile or further and pacesetters have a four from 23 record (17.4% strike-rate, +£6.75 to a £1 level stake at SP), with prominent racers (e.g. chased/tracked leader(s)) weighing in with 13 victories from 97 representatives (13.4%, +£26.41). Horses described as ‘midfield’ or ‘held up’ are just six from 144 (4.2%) for a huge loss of £109.25.
Auguste’s Rodin stablemate ADELAIDE RIVER was only eighth at Epsom but the 33-1 shot actually fared best of those to race up with the early pace and he will find the Curragh more amenable to such tactics.
SPREWELL was ridden more patiently than in his previous starts when fourth to Auguste Rodin in the Derby, no doubt in a bid to get the trip. He ran a blinder to finish fourth despite becoming unbalanced on the quirky track and finding the ground much faster than preferred. He should go well, especially if the ground eases.
Middle-to-low draws usually dominate in the 1m Dubai Duty Free Derby Festival Handicap (4.15) and it could pay to concentrate on those drawn in stall 11 or lower. BOPEDRO ran third in this race when trained in Ireland and it’s interesting to see him entered up for David O’Meara. Best late off a very strong pace, he ran a good race at Royal Ascot to finish a 40-1 sixth of 29 in the 7f Buckingham Palace Stakes.
CURRENT OPTION rarely does much in the first half of the year but comes alive from July onwards and he could reach a place, despite the suspicion that he’s best at 7f.
The 1m Dubai Duty Free Celebration Stakes (5.25) – a Listed contest for horses aged three or older – has gone to a prominent racer in seven of the past ten years. A low draw has also been helpful and simply backing stall 1 blind would have found five winners from ten bets for a profit of £22.62 to a £1 level stake at SP, with the beaten horses finishing 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 4th and 5th.
Recent winning form hasn’t been a great guide, with only two of the 22 last-time-out winners following up. We can narrow the field further by ignoring filles/mares (one win from 17) and omitting those who hadn’t raced within the past eight weeks. Combining the last three angles in a system would have seen us find eight winners from 44 bets in the past ten years (+£5.62), with those drawn in stall 1 recording form figures of 11115 (4-5).
We finish with the Dubai Duty Free Irish EBF “Ragusa” Handicap over the 1m4f trip (6.00), in which it could pay to side with low-drawn prominent racers. HMS Seahorse was described by the Racing Post as ‘prominent on inner’ when taking this race from stall 1 last year at odds of 13-2 and we also had stall 1 winners in both 2016 and 2017.
