This weekend the spotlight shines across the Irish sea to the southside of Dublin, to Leopardstown for the Dublin Racing Festival. With some top class racing on offer, we've got two tournaments, one each day this weekend. As always, I've taken a early look at the entries for the races and noted some initial thoughts. Want to play in the tournament? You can opt-in now - click here.
13:20 – Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Nov Hurdle (Grade 1)
Trainer trends
Willie Mullins has taken seven of the past ten renewals, though ‘only’ two from five since this race was elevated to Grade 1 status in 2018. The last four winners all went on to finish second in their respective races at the Cheltenham festival, so bear that in mind for your Tote Placepots come March.
Nigel Twiston-Davies sends my Albert Bartlett fancy WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT over the Irish sea to take on the big guns in their own back yard and the six-year-old looks sure to give a good account. He won a point-to-point and national hunt flat race before his fine hurdles-debut third to subsequent Challow Hurdle winner Hermes Allen in Grade 2 company at Cheltenham in November. He was due to step up to three miles at Cheltenham the following month but that meeting was abandoned and we didn’t see him again until New Year’s Day at the same venue where he gamely saw off Rock My Way (winner since) in a hot 2m4.5f maiden hurdle. He did it the hard way – making the running into the headwind – and it was a performance worthy of an upgrade. I don’t usually back maiden hurdle winners who step up to Grade 1 company on their next start, as it’s a difficult transition to make in a single step, but his Cheltenham third suggests he won’t be out of place in this company and he’s open to improvement over this longer trip.
Barry Connell’s GOOD LAND was the 5-2 antepost favourite at the time of writing, having made all for an impressive victory in maiden hurdle company over 2m4f here just after Christmas. The only previous runner his trainer stepped up to Grade 1 company after landing a maiden hurdle was Marine Nationale, who won at 11-2 earlier this season.
The cut back from three miles isn’t ideal for COOL SURVIVOR, who lost his unbeaten record over hurdles when eight lengths behind Hiddenvalley Lake in a Cork Grade 3 in December. However, the likely stronger pace in this Grade 1 contest will suit and he could out-run his big odds (33-1 at the time of writing).
13:55 – Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)
Connections of the Willie Mullins-trained LOSSIEMOUTH must have enjoyed seeing Comfort Zone beat the best British juveniles in Grade 2s at Chepstow and Cheltenham recently, as their filly had that rival over six lengths back in third when easily landing a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse on her Irish debut. She followed that with another facile success, this time over course and distance in Grade 2 company, and she understandably heads the antepost betting at odds of 4-9.
Willie Mullins’ BLOOD DESTINY won his maiden hurdle by five lengths from Sir Allen who went one better at Punchestown next time. He bolted up by 18 lengths under forcing tactics at Fairyhouse last month, clocking a fast time in the process, and could be the value (9-4) in the race if allowed to take on his stablemate. His trainer has seven of the nine entries at the four-day stage and this race could cut up badly.
14:30 – Goffs Irish Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1)
At the time of writing, five horses were trading at single-figure odds and four are trained by Willie Mullins – APPRECIATE IT (7-4), DYSART DYNAMO (15-8), EL FABIOLO (5-1) and SAINT ROI (13-2). The first-named has had little to beat in his two runs over fences and duly landed odds of 1-5 and 1-9. This represents a far sterner challenge and I’m happy to take him on. Dysart Dynamo impressed here on his chase debut and it’s worth remembering that he was sent off as the 9-4 joint-favourite (with Constitution Hill) in last season’s Supreme Novice Hurdle, in which he was cruising before falling three out. He’ll do for me at this early stage.
15:05 – Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup (Grade 1)
Another short-priced Willie Mullins-trained favourite, this time GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (4-11), who has won his last six completed starts. Five of those wins came over trips of about two and a half miles, with the exception over three miles in novice hurdle company almost two years ago. Will he stay this far over fences? Probably, but at his sort of price I’d rather watch than pay to find out.
Mullins also has the next two in the betting – STATTLER (9-2) and KEMBOY (10-1). Stattler has lost all three previous starts in Grade 1 company, going down by a combined margin of 34 lengths, and could prove vulnerable again. Kemboy was only fifth in this last year when a 3-1 shot and the 11-year-old makes little appeal. If there’s to be an upset then maybe it could come from ANY SECOND NOW, placed in the last two Grand Nationals. He did well to finish second when 16-1 for a 2m3.5f hurdle on his comeback on New Year’s Eve, though Aintree is likely to be his main focus once again.
16:10 – Paddy Power Handicap Chase (Registered As The Sandyford Handicap Chase) (Grade B)
Backing the youngest horse or horses in this contest would have seen us find the winner in five of the past six years and this tactic also provided a 182-1 Tote Exacta dividend in 2019 from a shortlist of just three runners (14-1 beat 11-1). Six-year-old BARNACULLIA was placed in a Grade 2 novice chase at Punchestown when he last ran over this sort of trip and, as the only runner of his age, could go well on his handicap chase debut. I also want to side with seven-year-old WAVE OF THE SEA, winner of this race for the past two years.
