Andrew Mount's Goodwood good things: Day One

Another Festival is upon us, meaning it's time for another World Pool Betting Tournament. I've sieved through the first day of action at Glorious Goodwood and found a few Betting angles. To join me in the Betting Tournament, you can opt-in here.

The first of three World Pool days (Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday) at the five-day Glorious Goodwood Festival gets underway with the 5f Coral Handicap (1.40) in which John Quinn’s LORD RIDDIFORD is bidding for a hat-trick. His trainer also won this in 2017 with El Astronaute and the eight-year-old has clearly been laid out for a repeat bid. His full record at Goodwood reads 1511 (3-4) with excuses for the defeat and he looks set to go close of his stall 15 of 15 draw is no hindrance.

One of my favourite punting angles at Glorious Goodwood is to side with handicappers from the Johnston yard, especially the Class 2 contests run over 7f or further. In fact, we’d have made money in these contests whether at Glorious Goodwood or the ‘off’ meetings at the Sussex venue.

Since 2012 backing Mark, and now Charlie, Johnston handicappers in Class 2 handicaps of 7f or further at Goodwood would have found 40 winners from 250 bets (16% strike-rate) for an excellent profit of £124.65 to a £1 level stake at SP.

Several of those winners came in the 1m2f Chesterfield Cup Handicap (2.50), including 14-1 shot Forest Falcon last year, and OUTBREAK looks worth a punt in this year’s renewal. He caught the eye when fifth from a poor draw at Newbury on his penultimate start and I’m happy to forgive his subsequent heavy defeat in the Royal Hunt Cup, as his prominent running style was a big disadvantage.

The 7f Nicholson Vintage Stakes (3.25) is the first Group contest of the week and Placepot punters might just want to banker the favourite, as the market leader has recorded form figures of 1151111122 in the past ten years. That accolade is likely to go to HAATEM, who chased home the hugely impressive City Of Troy in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket on his latest start, albeit by a respectful six and a half lengths.

If there’s to be a minor upset in this Group 2 contest then it could come from WITNESS STAND, a winner at Chester on his sole previous outing. Progeny of his sire Expert Eye have a 12 form 41 record when bidding to follow up a win for a profit of £7.86 to a £1 level stake at SP. Another thing to look out for is the draw. Traditionally, low draws are favoured over 7f-1m at Goodwood but on very soft ground the runners tend to migrate to the centre/stands’ side and the bias can flip on its head.

The Group 2 Lennox Stakes (4.00) looks a belter, with 2021 winner KINROSS, the mount of Frankie Dettori, currently heading the betting at around the 6-4 mark. He was also second by a neck last year when the ground was faster than ideal, and he’ll appreciate any further rain.

Charlie Appleby won this with Space Blues in 2020 and his AL SUHAIL is also respected after his 14-1 sixth of 15 to Khaadem at Royal Ascot when the yard’s horses weren’t firing on all cylinders. He was ridden patiently that day, which will be ideal here given the forecast headwind in the straight.

The first Group 1 of the meeting is the 2m Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup Stakes in which Ascot Gold Cup one-two COURAGE MON AMI and COLTRANE do battle once more. The Gosden runner won here on his penultimate start but soft ground is an unknown, so I’ll take Coltrane, fourth to Kyprios last year and proven under these conditions, to reverse the form.

TASHKHAN is proving hard to win with but he loves the mud and he’s sure to be staying on late into frame contention.

Day one closes with the 6f World Pool British EBF Fillies’ Handicap (5.35) in which it could be worth siding with Hughie Morrison’s MOTTISFONT. Her trainer has a useful with his handicappers in the month of August, scoring with 95 of his 520 runners since 2007 (18.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £67.77 to a £1 level stake at SP.

Those who finished in the top six on their latest start were 80 from 370 (21.6%) for a profit of £88.02. Mottisfont fared second best of those to come from off the pace when fourth at Newmarket in a first-time visor on her latest start and Tom Marquand is a positive booking.

Wednesday’s World Pool card opens with a tricky 1m4f handicap (1.50) but it could pay to side with trusty Charlie Johnston handicap system discussed earlier. He saddles four runners – FRENCH INVASION, the mount of Frankie Dettori, STRUTH, ALUMNUS and COOL PARTY.

I know from bitter past experience not to pick between the yard’s runners in this contest, so I’ll be playing them all to some degree.

MATILDA PICOTTE didn’t stay the trip when a 33-1 third of 20 in the 1000 Guineas and then found 6f on good to firm ground an insufficient test of stamina in the Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock. She was poorly drawn that day and the return 7f looks ideal in the Group 3 Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes (2.25).

JUMBLY should appreciate the cut back in trip after weakening into fourth place in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes.

It's hard to escape the claims of PADDINGTON in the Group 1 Qatar Sussex Stakes (3.35) and it’s amazing to think that the son of Siyouni was running in handicap company on his reappearance in March. His Coral-Eclipse win over Emily Upjohn made it six wins from six starts since his debut defeat in an Ascot maiden last September.

Thursday’s starts with another Class 2 handicap, this time over 1m2f for three-year-olds. The Johnston yard has taken the honours four times in the past ten years and they are again strongly represented, with BENACRE, FINN’S CHARM, KILLYBEGS WARRIOR and PERFECT PLAY entered at the four-day stage. Benacre looks ready for the step up from 1m and could be the way to go.

The early market for the 6f Markel Richmond Stakes is headed by JASOUR, surprise winner of the Kingdom Of Bahrain July Stakes on his latest outing. However, he’s yet to encounter ground softer than good and might struggle to notch another Group 2 victory.

The Aidan O’Brien-trained UNQUESTIONABLE had the rest well beaten when second by a head in the Railway Stakes at the Curragh last time and could be the way to jump.

Many observers felt that ADELAIDE RIVER could have won the Irish Derby with a more vigorous ride - he finished second to shorter-priced stablemate Auguste Rodin – and he has since finished second in the Grand Prix de Paris. However, he’s now lost seven in a row since his debut success on the Polytrack at Dundalk and he might be one to oppose for win purposes if lining up in the Group 3 John Pearce Racing Gordon Stakes.

The Christopher Head-trained BLUE ROSE CEN leads the antepost betting for the Group 1 Qatar Nassau Stakes and it’s no surprise given form figures since her debut of 11211111 (8-9), with the sole defeat by a neck. She bolted up in the Prix de Diane Longines at Chantilly last time and is going to prove very difficult to beat.

NASHWA is the obvious form danger, but last year’s winner would prefer quicker ground.

Thursday’s card ends with the 5f World Pool Handicap in which I’ll be backing Royal Ascot winner RHYTHM N HOOVES if the ground dries out sufficiently. Archie Watson’s gelding was only seventh of 14 when 9-4 favourite for another 5f handicap at Ascot last week but he was poorly drawn and the ground was much softer than preferred.

KNEBWORTH impressed at York last week and is the obvious danger.