Our star columnist returns to dissect the three days of World Pool action during the Qatar Goodwood festival. Andrew Mount provides us with all the stats, trends and prudent analysis to help you decide who to back at the Sussex track.
Day One - Tuesday 26th July
13:50 – Chesterfield Cup Handicap (Class 2, 4yo+, 1m2f)
Mark Johnston has won this race on multiple occasions and nearly had the trifecta in 2014 when his three runners finished first (14-1), third (8-1) and fourth (25-1). He and son Charlie saddle two runners this year – FOREST FALCON (stall 16 of 18) and WEST END CHARMER (stall 14). Neither is especially well drawn but both have the tactical speed to gain a good early position, with West End Charmer preferred of the pair. He’s running in a handicap for the first time since placing third of 14 at Royal Ascot in 2020.
CARADOC has finished second on both course visits and is another one to consider in a very tricky opener, along with LEGEND OF DUBAI who will appreciate the step back up in trip after his Royal Hunt Cup flop.
14:25 – Japan Racing Association Vintage Stakes (Group 2, 2yo, 7f)
I’ve no strong opinion in this 7f juvenile contest but JIFFY BOY has been in my tracker since his Leicester win in early April where he made the running in the ‘swamp’ on the inside rail. He’s not been out since and may need softer ground but there’s compensation in offers of around 66-1.
15:00 – World Pool Lennox Stakes (Group 2, 3yo+, 7f)
Key stats and trends
Running Style
Eight of the last ten winners (from a sample of 52 horses) came from off the pace. One made the running and one more (from a sample of 30) raced prominently.
System
In the past ten years, backing any horse who finished in the top four last time out when described as ‘held up’ would have found seven winners from 27 bets for a profit of £52.50, though the bulk of that was down to 50-1 winner Breton Rock in 2017.
The main contenders
I thought POGO was flattered when scoring at Haydock on his penultimate start because he made all on the inside of the track where the ground was clearly fastest. However, he followed up comfortably in another Group 3 contest at Newmarket and he did place in the tote Celebration Mile (Group 2) here last August. His forcing style is a concern but I’m still reluctant to rule him out.
LUSAIL was just touched off by COROEBUS when 28-1 for the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot and has since placed third in another 1m Group 1 contest, the prix Jean Prat at Deauville. Dropping back to 7f looks ideal – he found only subsequent Commonwealth Cup winner Perfect Power too good over this trip in the Greenham at Newbury on his comeback – and he should again be thereabouts.
KINROSS did well to finish a neck third behind Pogo at Haydock as he challenged down the outside where the ground was slowest, and he was only beaten by a little over two lengths when eighth of 24 in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot next time. The step back up to 7f looks a good idea and, while softer ground would be preferable, he should still go well.
SIR DANCEALOT won this for David Elsworth in 2018 and 2019 and shaped well over an inadequate 6f at Pontefract last time, his second run back after a 23-month absence. He could surprise.
16:10 – Nicholson Gin Handicap (4yo+, 0-105, 5f)
Traditionally, the centre of the track rides quicker than the stands’ side rail in sprint handicaps at Goodwood when the ground is officially good or faster, favouring those drawn low-to-middle. This 15-runner 5f handicap will provide some draw clues and it might be worth a few draw-based trifecta perms. CELSIUS (stall 6 of 15) is unbeaten this season, loves best ground, and looks a key player.
17:20 – Coral Beaten-By-A-Length Free Bet Fillies’ Handicap (3yo+, 0-95, 1m)
Since the draw was reversed in 2011 it’s been very difficult to win a course a distance handicap from stall 12 or higher, with only three of the 146 qualifiers successful for a huge loss of £122.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. This is the first chance to see if the usual bias will be evident.
BREAKING LIGHT looks well berthed in stall 2 and won well at Haydock on her return from a wind operation last time. Trainer Karl Burke has had four previous runners score on their first outing following wind surgery and two of them followed up (14-1 and 12-1).
Day Two - Wednesday 27th July
13:50 – Coral Beaten-By-A-Length Handicap (3yo, 0-105, 1m4f)
This has been another good race for the Johnston yard in recent years and they were responsible for five of the 22 entries at the four-day stage. KNIGHTSWOOD, whose latest win came at this trip, has had excuses over 1m2f the last twice – he fared best of the prominent racers when a 25-1 sixth of 13 at Royal Ascot then raced on the slowest part of the track at Newmarket – and could be the best of them.
15:00 – Markel Molecomb Stakes (Group 3, 2yo, 5f)
The form of the Windsor Castle Stakes has already been well advertised, including by ROCKET RODNEY, second by a neck at 14-1 in that contest, who won easily in Listed company at Sandown next time. George Scott’s gelding could prove hard to beat here.
15:35 – Qatar Sussex Stakes (Group 1, 3yo+, 1m)
BAAEED took his record to eight wins from eight starts when again accounting for Real World in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot and that form has been boosted by subsequent wins for the third, fourth (CHINDIT) and fifth. Chindit has Group 1 form figures of 955534 (0-6), compared to 11114311 (6-8) below that level but he recorded a career-best RPR (Racing Post Rating) of 117 when third at Baaeed in the Lockinge and matched that when landing the Group 2 Summer Mile at Ascot last time. He looks to be improving and could be the one to finish second to the brilliant Baaeed in the Tote exacta.
16:45 – British EBF Alice Keppel Fillies’ Conditions Stakes (5f)
The sire Havana Grey is a good influence for speed and backing all his progeny over 5f on turf would have found 20 winners from 78 bets for a profit of £47.46 to a £1 level stake at SP. There were three entered at the four-day stage – CUBAN MISTRESS, who failed to see out the 6f trip behind Lezoo on World Pool day at Ascot last Saturday, STAR OF LADY M, well held in the Windsor Castle but an easy winner at Musselburgh next time, and UNION COURT, ninth in the Windsor Castle. All can be considered.
17:20 – World Pool Handicap (3yo+, 0-95, 7f)
This race often favours low draws and it’s rare for at least one horse drawn in stalls 1, 2 or 3 not to be involved in the finish. Hieronymus (stall 3 of 17) was second by a head at 20-1 last year. Magical Wish (stall 2) and Zhui Feng (stall 3) were placed at 25-1 and 8-1 respectively in 2020 and Dirty Rascal scored at 7-1 from stall 1 of 18 in 2019 (Cliffs Of Capri, stall 2, ran fourth at 20-1). Since 2011, those drawn in stall 9 or above have won just 12 of their 417 starts (2.9% strike-rate) in big-field (11+ runner) 7f handicaps at Goodwood for a huge loss of £287.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 23). On officially good to firm ground only, the score is just one from 83. Low- draw combination Tote trifectas could be the order of the day.
LORD RAPSCALLION, second of 15 when 25-1 for the big 7f handicap on Derby Day, is hard to win with backing him to finish second to the field in Exactas could be the angle if he gets a low draw.
Day Three - Thursday 28th July
13:50 – Coral Kincsem Handicap (3yo, 1m2f)
Thursday’s meeting begins with another middle-distance handicap and the first question to as ‘what are Charlie & Mark Johnston running?’. The yard won this in 2013, 2014, 2018 and last year and also saddled the runner-up in 2012, 2016 and 2020. They had three entered at the four-day stage – HIGHLAND PREMIERE, LUMINOUS LIGHT and WHITEFEATHERSFALL. Luminous Light has twice failed to settle since gelded, running with credit in third place on each occasion, and should appreciate a big field/strong pace scenario.
14:25 – Richmond Stakes (Group 2, 2yo, 6f)
NOBLE STYLE impressed at Ascot on his debut back in May when accounting for Walbank, subsequently runner-up in the Norfolk Stakes, but the lack of a run since is of some concern. CHATEAU, who represents the ultra-strong Windsor Castle form, improved considerably for the step up to 6f when landing a Newbury Listed race last time and could be the one.
15:00 – John Pearce Racing Gordon Stakes (Group 3, 3yo, 1m4f)
HOO YA MAL, who often fails to settle, appreciated the big field and tempo of the Derby, finishing second at 150-1. If this race cuts up he, could be vulnerable and it might be worth taking him on with Charlie Appleby’s NEW LONDON, who impressed when scoring on the slowest part of the track at Newmarket last time.
15:35 – Qatar Nassau Stakes (Group 1, 3yo+, 1m2f)
NASHWA was form figures since her racecourse debut of 1131 (3-4), with the sole defeat a non-staying third in the Oaks, but how good are the three-year-old fillies? Oaks runner-up Emily Upjohn trailed home a 25-length last of six in the King George when taking on her elders (and male rivals, admittedly) and she could be worth opposing at skinny odds. The William Haggas-trained four-year-old LILAC ROAD returned to winning ways at York last time, to take her turf record over this sort of trip to 2121 (2-4), with both defeats by just half a length. She could be the way to go and perming the four-year-olds in exactas/trifectas is another angle.
