As the Jumps Series of Betting Tournaments comes to a close we have our finale with £25,000 to play for! I've plotted a few angles at the Sandown card on Saturday which the Betting Tournament will follow.
13:05 – Novices’ Championship Final Handicap Hurdle
Nicky Henderson’s IBERICO LORD returned from wind surgery with a narrow 9-1 success from odds-on favourite Beau Balko at Stratford earlier this month, a performance worthy of an upgrade as he came from off the pace on a track that is disproportionately kind to front-runners. He holds solid claims of following up in this Class 2 contest despite owner J P McManus also being represented by antepost favourite UNDER CONTROL, who ran out a ready winner at Cheltenham on April 20.
In-form Paul Nicholls has won two of the last three renewals and he has three entries at the four-day stage – the aforementioned BEAU BALKO, HOLETOWN HERO and KILLALOAN.
13:40 – Celebration Chase
This Grade 1 contest has been dominated by Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson in recent years and the former’s GREANETEEN is bidding for his third straight win. He was sent off as the 11-8 favourite last year and was a best-priced 2-1 at the time of writing. The nine-year-old was beaten by 34 lengths when third in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham last month but the ground was softer than ideal, and he’ll be happier now returned to a right-handed track.
JONBON, who just shades favouritism at 15-8, had clock-watchers salivating after his 43-length romp at Aintree and Nicky Henderson’s seven-year-old – successful in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase over track and trip in December – will likely be hard to beat if making a quick return to action. That Aintree victory took his career record, including point-to-point form, to 111112111121 (10-12), improving to 1111111111 (10-10) at tracks others than Cheltenham.
14:15 – Gold Cup Handicap Chase
Saturday’s main betting race – the bet365 Gold Cup – has been a good contest for those aged seven, eight or nine in recent years. The last nine renewals have fallen to horses in this age group, and we can narrow the field further by looking at running styles. Sandown’s chase course usually favours handy types and five of the last six winners led or raced prominently in their prep race.
Since 2012 (ten renewals, as the race was not run in 2020) simply backing horses aged between seven and nine who led or raced prominently last time out would have found six winners from 41 bets for a profit of £57.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Since 2016, the score is five from 24 for a profit of £59.00.
Last year, this system produced the 16-1 winner from just three bets. There were several qualifiers at the four-day declaration stage with TEA CLIPPER, best of the prominent racers when sixth to Corach Rambler on unsuitably soft ground in the Ultima, the most interesting one.
14:50 – Oasksey Chase
Paul Nicholls has landed the last three renewals of this Grade 2 contest with three different horses (Saint Calvados, Frodon and Black Corton) and has live chances with SOLO and MCFABULOUS. The first-named runs best when fresh on right-handed tracks and has been rested for 63 days since his Pendil Novices’ Chase win over Datsalrightgino, who gave the form a timely boost at Ayr last week. McFabulous also arrives here a fresh horse, having been off for 11 weeks since pulling up at Newbury. An irregular heartbeat was blamed for that odds-on defeat and his only other career non-completion – at Wincanton last November – was followed by a win. He won the Grade 2 Select Hurdle on this card 12 months ago and is also entered in that race again.
The Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed Race)
Ascot 18.12.21
The Evan Williams-trained ANNSAM also holds an entry in the bet365 Gold Cup but, give his liking for small fields, this shorter contest looks ideal. His record in fields of eight or fewer runners stands at 511214111 (6-9) for a profit of £14.96 to a £1 level stake at SP. His small-field chase record reads 2111 (3-4)
15:25 – Josh Gifford Novices’ Handicap Chase
Solo could take in this novices’ handicap chase under top weight rather than take the Grade 2 route in the Oaksey Chase. However, Paul Nicholls hasn’t enjoyed much luck in this contest, with his runners recording form figures of 3725896454 (0-10). He could also rely on CAP DU MATHAN and QUEL DESTIN.
The Jane Williams-trained HONNEUR D’ANJONC pulled up at Newbury last time out but he has a poor record on left-handed tracks and that run is easily forgiven. His record right-handed reads 2F9121211421 (5-12) and he could be a good Tote Placepot inclusion at what should be a nice price.
16:00 – Select Hurdle
Last year’s winner MCFABULOUS will be entitled to respect if running here in preference to the Oaksey Chase, while GOSHEN will appreciate the return to a right-handed track after trailing home last of five in the National Spirit Hurdle at left-handed Fontwell on his most recent outing.
THYME HILL hasn’t fully convinced over the larger obstacles despite his Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase victory and could revert to hurdles here. Best fresh, he’s been rested for 45 days since disappointing at the Cheltenham festival.
Ten-year-old course expert CALL ME LORD rarely runs a bad race here, recording form figures of 11213236322 (3-11) and should be on the radar of Tote Exacta players.
