Prior to Cheltenham's nine-race Trials Day card, our Tote Tipster Andrew Mount has put pen to paper on his early thoughts on the Jumps HQ's weekend offering and how mapped out how he is going to play in this Saturday's Cheltenham Trials Day Tournament.
12:10 – Novices’ Handicap Chase
Stats/trends
Favourites (including joint/co favourites) are just 2-24 this century (-£18.00 to a £1 level stake at SP).
The last ten winners were aged between six and eight, though only ten runners fell outside that age range.
The last ten winners finished first (x3), second (x6) or third (x1) in their prep race.
Five of the last ten winners prepped at Kempton and backing all 19 qualifiers would have returned a profit of £22.00.
Eight of the last ten winners ran in a Class 3 contest on their latest start.
Dan Skelton’s UNEXPECTED PARTY looks very interesting on his handicap chase debut and is one of several on the shortlist at this very early stage.
13:20 – Albert Bartlett Clarence House Chase (Grade 1)
The rearranged Clarence House Chase could have up to six runners rather than the original three and the Tote Trifecta could be the best way to play this Grade 1 contest.
ENERGUMENE and EDWARDSTONE are likely to be fighting it out for first place but the progressive seven-year-old AMARILLO SKY could grab third behind that pair, or even second place if one of them underperforms.
Joe Tizzard’s charge recorded a career-best RPR (Racing Post Rating) when romping home by 14 lengths at Newbury last time and looks set to give a good account.
13:50 – Handicap Chase (Class 1)
Nine of the last ten winners of this Premier Handicap were aged between six and eight and applying this rule eliminates ten of the 28 horses declared at the four-day stage.
Eight-year-old GUY is hard to win with but his record in handicaps reads 123422622223 (1-12) and he’s certainly of interest for the Placepot or to finish second to the field in the Exacta.
Paddy Power Gold Cup winner GA LAW will be of obvious interest if coming here instead of Doncaster where he’s favourite for the Sky Bet Handicap Chase.
GOLD CUP BAILLY has form figures on left-handed tracks of 2111 (3-4), with the only defeat by Ahoy Senor in a maiden hurdle at Ayr when favourite to beat that rival.
STOLEN SILVER unseated when favourite for the Paddy Power Gold Cup and found only Midnight River too good over trip and track on New Year’s Day. He’s yet to finish outside the first four when completing the course for his current trainer and holds obvious claims.
14:25 – Cotswold Chase (Grade 2)
Stats/trends
Six of the last ten winners won their prep race and backing all last-time out winners would have returned a profit of £12.88 from 23 bets.
Nine of the last ten winners led or race prominently. Hold-up horses were just one from 30 (Cape Tribulation in 2013).
PROTEKTORAT, 13-8 favourite at the time of writing, was an impressive winner of the Betfair Chase on his reappearance, though 1-2 favourite A Plus Tard failed to run his race and the runner-up/third were both well beaten in the King George next time. Four of his five previous wins were followed by a defeat, and he’s usually ridden patiently, not ideal in this race.
CORACH RAMBLER has form figures over 3m or further of 16114U14 (4-8), improving to 11U1 (3-4) on tracks with stiff uphill finishes. He’s won on both the New and Old Course here and the form of his Coral Gold Cup fourth to Le Milos is working out well, with runner-up Remastered and sixth-placed Annsam both winning at the next time of asking. His patient running style isn’t ideal, but I’m still inclined to chance him at a big price.
Front-running FRODON has won on three of his last four visits to Cheltenham’s New Course, including this race in 2019. He could defy advancing years if allowed to dominate.
HAPPYGOLUCKY has form figures over 3m or further of 121 (2-3), including a course and distance novice chase win. He found the extended 2m4f trip too short when down the field here on New Year’s Day and could go well at a big price.
15:00 – Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2)
Antepost favourite PAISLEY PARK is bidding for a fourth straight win in this race. He ran out a comfortable winner of the re-arranged Long Walk Hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day but didn’t beat a huge amount – runner-up Goshen was up in trip, fellow veteran Champ (third) jumped out to his left on the right-handed track and might have found the race coming too soon after his reappearance Newbury win, while Miranda (outclassed) and Not So Sleepy (non-stayer) were not running under their ideal conditions.
GELINO BELLO, who reverts from fences after his Kempton fall, and DASHEL DRASHER (stamina unproven) are the next two in the antepost betting but make limited appeal.
BOTOX HAS was a big eyecatcher in the Pertemps Qualifier on the Old Course here in October, finishing second of 15 and doing clear best of those to race prominently in a race dominated by the closers (the winner, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth came from midfield or further back). He won well in a Grade 3 handicap hurdle at Haydock next time and his disappointing effort in the Relkeel Hurdle on New Year’s Day can be attributed to the cut back in trip to an extended 2m4f. He’s back up to three miles this time and could surprise.
15:35 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
PEMBROKE was made favourite for this race when the decs came out on Monday and he was certainly impressive when romping home by 16 lengths in a Ludlow novice hurdle last month. However, he raced wide on the better ground that day, has he had done when similarly impressive at Wetherby the time before, and there might be better value elsewhere.
WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT, who put in a gutsy display to land a maiden hurdle here on New Year’s Day after making the running into the headwind, has to be high on the shortlist for this Grade 2 contest. The son of Getaway won a point-to-point and a Newbury bumper before his fine third to Hermes Allen in Grade 2 company here in November on his hurdles debut.
Syd Hosie’s ROCK MY WAY chased home Weveallbeencaught when 66-1 for his Rules debut in a course and distance maiden hurdle on New Year’s Day. He’s entered in the Ballymore and, given his unfashionable connections, is likely to go under the radar on Saturday.
16:10 – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Six-year-olds carrying less than 11-00 have dominated this 2m1f handicap hurdle in recent years. Since 2016, backing all the six-year-olds would have found five winners from 24 bets for a profit of £11.50, with those carrying 10-13 or less recording form figures of 101366313812 (4-12) for a profit of £18.00. If the top weights stand their ground we could have several qualifiers this year, with PUNCTUATION, unbeaten in four starts since joining Fergal O’Brien, perhaps the most interesting.
