Claiming top prize in the Tote Ten To Follow Royal Ascot Mini Game is going to be reliant on a strong performance in the six bonus races.
Across the five day Royal meeting, a sextet of contests will be worth 50+ points to the winner, so finding at least a few of them is vital.
We’ve taken a look at the historical trends for those races, and picked our four pertinent patterns and applied them to this year’s entries.
Could they throw up a few surprise selections for your Royal Ascot Ten To Follow?
Queen Anne Stakes
- None of the last 20 winners had more than 18 previous starts
- 19 of the last 20 had recorded three or more wins on turf
- 19 were aged between 4yo - 5yo
- All but one ran over 1m+ last time out
Three of the current 12 entries to the opening Group 1 tick all the boxes here, including hot-favourite Palace Pier.
The four-year-old was an authoritative winner of the Lockinge Stakes over a mile last time out, taking his career haul to eight victories.
Dare take on John Gosden’s hot-pot? Lope Y Fernandez and Top Rank are the other pair who meet our four selected trends.
King’s Stand Stakes
- 19 of the last 20 winners had won at least a Listed race
- 18 of the last 20 had finished in the frame at least eight times on turf
- 18 had 8+ non-handicap starts
- 18 out of had at least four career wins
Hot-favourite Battaash, plus close challengers Oxted and Liberty Beach, tick the required boxes for this 5f sprint prize.
The requirement to have won four or more times or at least placed eight times on turf means a number of dark horses don’t make the shortlist.
American raiders Extravagant Kid and Maven both have three career victories to their name, while Winter Power, an impressive winner at York last time, has hit the frame seven times, one short of the trend.
Prince Of Wales’s Stakes
- No horse older than five has won the race since 1995
- Only one of the last 20 winners arrived without a prep run
- 17 of the last 20 winners finished in the first three last time out
- 19 of the last 20 winners were sent off at an SP of 4/1 or shorter last time
While two Aidan O’Brien inmates meet all four of these trends (Broome and Armory), there’s no place for last year’s dominating filly Love, who is set to arrive at Ascot without a prep run.
Addeybb, runner up in the race last year, is apparently too old to win, while Breeders’ Cup winner Audarya not only hasn’t run since, but was a surprise winner in Keeneland with an SP of 12/1.
Chester winner Japan, Lord North and Sangarius, recently defeated in the Brigadier Gerard, are the only other three to get top marks in the trends.
- 19 of the last 20 winners had run no more than twice that season
- 18 were sent off no bigger than 6/1 last time out
- Just two horses older than six have won in 20 years
- 19 of the last 20 winners had four or more previous career wins
The trends point to somewhat of a surprise in the Gold Cup, with Stradivarius (age), Subjectivist (SP last time out) and Santiago (only three wins) all failing in at least one criteria.
Just four of the current entries hit every trend, with Alan King’s Champions Day winner Trueshan looking the most likely of challengers.
Of the rest, Baron Samedi has been in America recently so might be hard pushed to line up, Princess Zoe would want soft ground, while Master Of Reality probably isn’t good enough.
- Five of the six winners had won at least a Group 2
- All but one had run within the last 48 days
- All six had between four and six career starts
- Four of the six had won three or more times before
Only on the Royal card since 2015, we’ve not got quite the same amount of trends to go on for this 6f sprint for the three-year-olds, but surprisingly just one horse ticks each of the four boxes.
Dandalla needs to bounce back from a poor performance at Haydock in the mud, but she’s a Group 2 winner having taken the Norfolk on this meeting last year, and has tasted victory in three of her six career outings.
Of the fancied entrants, Campanelle, Diligent Harry and Supremacy all fall foul of the “run within 48 days” rule, while French raider Suesa and Archie Watson’s improver Dragon Symbol have yet to win a Group 2.
Diamond Jubilee Stakes
- Only one of the last 20 winners was running in their first Group 1
- 19 of the last 20 recorded their last win in a Class 1 event
- All but one of those 20 won at no further than 6f last itme
- 19 of the last 20 winners were aged between 3yo - 6yo
Sadly the trends don’t really narrow down this year’s renewal with plenty of the fancied horses including Starman, Glass Slippers and Art Power all ticking every box.
There are a few notable omissions though, with last year’s runner-up Dream Of Dreams deemed too old, while the Sheikh Mohammed Obaid pair of Nahaar and Cape Byron last tasted success at Class 2 and Class 3 level respectively.
It’s likely you’ll have to use more than just trends to pick out your Diamond Jubilee Stakes runner for your Tote Ten To Follow.
The Tote Ten To Follow Royal Ascot Mini Game is now open, with players having until midday on Tuesday 15th June to submit their stables.
Use the trends, the formbook and your gut (or a mix of all three) to put together your team of top points scorers in a bid to top the leaderboard.