Our star columnist returns to dissect the three days of World Pool action during the Ebor Festival. Andrew Mount provides us with all the stats, trends and prudent analysis to help you decide who to back at York this week.
Don't forget that World Pool is only in operation for the first three days of York's Ebor Festival, that's this Wednesday to Friday.
Wednesday 17th August - Day One
1.50 – 5.5f Sky Bet And Symphony Group Handicap (3yo+)
Early pace has been the key element in sprint handicaps at York in recent years and it can be very difficult to make ground from the rear, even in big fields. Since the beginning of 2016, frontrunners are 12 from 97 in sprint handicaps of 15+ runners and backing them all would have returned a profit of £61.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Prominent racers are 38 from 517 for a tiny profit of £1.25, whereas those ridden patiently are just 30 from 848 for a huge loss of £467.00.
Michael Dods is eight from 50 in big-field sprint handicaps in the same period for a profit of £36.00. On the jockey front, Jason Hart (six from 31, +£57.00) and Connor Beasley (six from 29, +£31.50) have impressive figures. Draw-wise, it usually helps to be drawn middle-to-low and we often see the winner of this 5.5f contest blast off down the centre of the track and make all.
Last year’s winner COPPER KNIGHT won’t mind if the forecast rain arrives and looks well drawn in stall 10 of 22. He should go well again but LIVE IN THE MOMENT, not best drawn when second by a neck in last year’s renewal, might be able to reverse the form this time around. Last year, the Copper Knight/Live In The Moment Tote Exacta paid £201.80 (outscoring the computer straight forecast) and whose to say they wont dominate the finish once more?
2.25 – 7f Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (2yo)
All nine runners are open to improvement after just one or two previous starts and this race has thrown up some shocks in recent years, including Royal Patronage, the 25-1 outsider of five, who was successful 12 months ago.
Horses who ran at York last time out have a good record (four from 11 this century) and it could be worth taking a chance on Julie Camacho’s SHAQUILLE, who was a 20-1 winner over course and distance on his debut last month.
3.00 – 1m4f Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2) (3yo)
This Group 2 contest has not been a good race for last-time out winners, with only two of the 27 qualifiers successful in the past ten years. Backing them all would have resulted in a loss of £21.60 to a £1 stake. In the same period, backing those who were beaten in a Group 1 or Group 2 contest last time would have found six winners from 19 bets for a profit of £17.50.
EL BODEGON, third in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp last time, is this year’s sole qualifier and could be worth a small interest with Hollie Doyle taking the ride. Any rain will aid his cause.
3.35 – 1m2f Juddmonte International Stakes (Group 1) (3yo+)
BAAEED bids to make it ten wins from ten career starts and is obviously going to be very difficult to beat, despite stepping up beyond one mile for the first time in his illustrious career.
The angle for Tote punters is to find the one to follow him home for the Exacta. MISHRIFF completely blew the start at Ascot last time and the overall balance of his British form (just one win from his last seven starts) suggests he could prove vulnerable despite winning this race in comfortable fashion 12 months ago. He had ALENQUER six lengths back in second place that day, but the ground was too quick for the runner-up and he could go well if it eases.
SIR BUSKER and DUBAI HONOUR were separated by a nose when one-two in Group 2 company over course and distance last time and the former could be ridden tactically to pick up some place money late and has yet to run a bad race in three starts here. Since gelded, Dubai Honour has form figures over 1m2f in Europe of 11122 (3-5) and could still have some improvement in him.
Thursday, August 18 - Day Two
1.50 – 6f Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (2yo)
At the time of writing, the final declarations and draw were unknown, but it could be worth opposing Queen Mary winner DRAMATISED who was favourably drawn in that Royal Ascot contest. The form has been let down by the placed horses and she’s unlikely to be much of a price. LEZOO’s patient running style could leave her vulnerable and it might be worth perming a few of the outsiders in Tote exactas in the hope of an upset.
2.25 – 6f Goffs UK Harry Beeby Premier Yearling Stakes (2yo)
William Haggas and Richard Hannon have won seven of the past ten renewals of this valuable sales race and both have just the one runner. The Haggas-trained ROYAL DESIGN was very green when 11th of 14 at Yarmouth on his recent debut and needs to find plenty of improvement in a short space of time. His yard’s three winners in this race had all had four or five previous runs. Preference is for Hannon’s SHOULDVEBEENARING, an easy winner at Ripon last time.
3.00 – 1m CLIPPER LOGISTICS Handicap (3yo+)
Key stats and trends
- Prep race
In the past ten years, those who raced in Class 3 or lower company in their prep race are just one from 41 in this heritage handicap. Those who finished in the top four on their latest start were just four from 74 for a loss of £38.50. Backing all runners who finished fifth or worse last time out would have found six winners from 107 bets for a profit of £14.00. - Age
Three-year-olds were 0-11 in the study period and those aged seven or older were 0-40. - Days since last run
Runners who had been of the track for eight weeks or longer were 0-16. - System
Backing horses aged between four and six, who finished out of the frame on their latest outing, who had raced within the past eight weeks, would have found six winners from 59 bets for a profit of £62.00.
Key contenders
SHINING BLUE lost his unbeaten record when last of 18 behind ORBAAN and BLUE FOR YOU at Glorious Goodwood but had little chance from his poor high draw and the four-year-old might be able to bounce back. CRUYFF TURN, last year’s winner, did well to run sixth from his poor draw in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket last time and also won here in May - his only other course outing.
3.35 – 1m4f Darley Yorkshire Oaks (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) (3yo+)
Antepost favourite ALPINISTA finished a 33-1 second to Love in this race two years ago and has landed six or her seven subsequent starts, latterly in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud. She’s going to be hard to beat. MAGICAL LAGOON’s forcing style is unlikely to be so effective round here and she looks vulnerable. Fortunate Oaks winner TUESDAY finished well held in the Irish Derby. She’ll obviously appreciate taking on her own sex again, but it could be left to last year’s runner-up ALBAFLORA to chase home the favourite, who races in the same colours.
Friday, August 19 - Day Three
1.50 – 1m4f Sky Bet Handicap (3yo+)
Key stats and trends
- Age
Another desperately tricky heritage handicap but this has been a very good race for four-year-olds. Eight of the last ten renewals went to this age group (there were actually nine four-year-old winners, as Libran and Memorial Day dead-heated in 2015) and backing them all would have returned a profit of £54.50 from 58 bets. Five-year-olds were two from 34 in the study period but three-year-olds (0-11) and those aged seven plus (0-19) have fared poorly. - Prep race
Last-time out winners are just one from 24 in the past ten years, though six winners finished second, third or fourth. Very few horses contest this race on the back of an outing in non-handicap company, but they recorded form figures of 01341 (2-5) for a profit of £9.50. - Days since last run
A very recent outing (between one and 20 days) has not always been ideal, with just two winners from 74 runners. - System
Backing all those aged four or five who had been off the track for 21 days or longer would have found eight winners from 50 bets for a profit of £62.50. This system drew a blank last year but there were only two qualifiers and one finished second at 9-1.
2.25 – 2m Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup Stakes (Group 2) (3yo+)
Alan King took a chance and ran TRUESHAN on unsuitably fast ground at Glorious Goodwood where the six-year-old finished a highly creditable third to Kyprios and STRADIVARIUS. If there’s any juice in the ground, he’ll surely reverse the form with the runner-up. The consistent TASHKHAN could be the value to chase him home. His chance will also improve with every drop of rain.
3.00 – 6f Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) (2yo)
Charlie Appleby’s NOBLE STYLE missed a host of engagements after his debut win at Ascot in early May and returned from a 12-week break to land a 6f novice contest at Newmarket. He might have been flattered by racing on the quicker strip down the centre of the track and he makes little appeal at shortish odds. Aidan O’Brien rarely targets this race and, since Rock Of Gibraltar’s win in 2001, his runners have finished 326246. He has AESOP’S FABLES and THE ANTARCTIC. Karl Burke’s MARSHMAN maintained his 100% record with an eight-length demolition at Thirsk and could be the way to go.
3.35 – 5f Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1) (2yo+)
ROYAL ACCLAIM heads the market at around 6-4 and looks very solid. The James Tate-trained three-year-old filly is unbeaten in three starts and was very impressive over course and distance last time. HIGHFIELD PRINCESS landed the Prix Maurice de Gheest on ground way faster than the official good to soft verdict at Deauville last time and, though dropping back from 6.5f to 5f, would be dangerous if the rain stays away. PROJECT DANTE is only rated 100 but Bryan Smart’s three-year-old was only just denied by Perfect Power (now rated 117) and Go Bears Go (113) in last year’s Norfolk Stakes and has been gelded since disappointing over course and distance on May’s reappearance. His trainer won this with 40-1 shot Alpha Delphini in 2018 and any rain will help.
