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The Placepot is great way to enjoy the Cheltenham Festival and with Tote giving away a free Placepot to all customers, every day of the big meeting at tote.co.uk, we've built this handy guide to give you all the Placepot Trends when it comes to the Festival.

% Knock Out per race on average:

Overall average per race is 56%

Race 1: 49%

Race 2: 52%

Race 3: 63%

Race 4: 50%

Race 5: 45%

Race 6: 64%

% Knock out per race on average per day and % Favs Placing:

Knockout %

Tuesday

Race 1: 52%

Race 2: 39%

Race 3: 63%

Race 4: 47%

Race 5: 31%

Race 6: 66%

Overall: 50%

No race is particularly hard to get through on day one with only race 6 (Boodles) anything near testing (66% average knockout rate, 38% favs Placing) and you may also get four places to swing at depending on field sizes.

In comparison follow the favs in the Arkle and Mares’ Hurdle, they have placed in 75% of races which subsequently means lower knockout % with 39% and 31% respectively. In the Arkle it pays to follow Mullins and Henderson they’ve had a placed horse between them in all the last ten running’s although many have gone off a short price.  Even more so follow Willie Mullins in the Mares Novice’, he’s been responsible for 12 of the 17 winners and 40% of the paced horses in all running’s.

Knockout % 

Wednesday

Race 1: 37%

Race 2: 34%

Race 3: 74%

Race 4: 52%

Race 5: 37%

Race 6: 74%

Overall: 51%

Unsurprisingly the Coral Cup on the Wednesday, known as one of, if not the hardest race of the Festival to find the winner only sees 29% of favs placing resulting in a 74% knockout rate. There doesn’t appear to be any particular trends here when looking for your placepot pick, but you’ll want to look for a runner who has had a career win in handicap races.

The Festival Novices Chase is the easiest leg to get through with fav having placed 100% in the last 7 years and it looks likely to follow a similar trend this year, so perhaps save your extra lines for the Coral cup. Henderson and Mullins again have a great record in the race, a runner from one of their stables has placed in six of the last seven running’s.

Knockout %                   

Thursday

Race 1: 49%

Race 2: 68%

Race 3: 48%

Race 4: 52%

Race 5: 54%

Race 6: 66%

Overall: 56%

On the face of it the Thursday is the easiest day to win the placepot with an average of 69% of favourites placing in the last seven years. With all races bar the Grand Annual seeing over 70% of favourites place its worth keeping them in especially in the Ryanair and Festival plate and using extra lines to perm up in the Grand Annual.

Slightly surprising is the number of favourites who have placed in the Pertemps but there is still a 68% knock out rate. This may be down to the fact the Pertemps is a race which often sees late money pilling on to one or two horses, most likely Irish ‘plot jobs’. Being race three this is well after the placepot has gone live, for that reason its worth picking the unnamed favourite in this leg, as at the time of placing your placepot the market may not be well established, meaning the SP fav is likely unrepresented.

The Irish’s record in this race is also excellent having won the last six running’s as well as being responsible for 66% of the placed horses. So keep an eye on Irish market movers in the morning for your selection.

Knockout %                    

Friday

Race 1: 67%

Race 2: 75%

Race 3: 74%

Race 4: 63%

Race 5: 68%

Race 6: 56%

Overall: 67%

Friday is by far the hardest day to win the placepot with an average knockout rate of 67% it’s not far off the average knockout rate of (70%) required to produced dividends of over £1,000, which is expected considering there have been five dividends over £500 in the last seven years. You also only see an average of 36% of favs placing through the day, some way off the proceeding days which see a minimum of 60% of favs placing.

Race 2, the County Hurdle is probably the hardest Placepot leg of the week to get through with a 75% knockout rate and only 14% of favourites placing in the last seven years. You want to be looking for horses that have a decent record on a left handed track, all the last 10 winners have achieved a career best RPR of at least 129 on a left handed track. With Dan Skelton and Willie Mullins being responsible for 6 of the last seven winner look out for their entries this year. They’ll probably be well found in the market given their record but perm them up with a couple of others, the average winning price in the last seven years is 20/1 so don’t be afraid to put a couple in at a decent price and possibly avoid the unnamed fav given their records in this.

The Allbert bartlett is also a tough leg to get through with a 74% knockout rate and only 29% of favs placing, it’s a race which has produced some big priced winners in the last few years. You want to be looking for slightly older and more experienced performers for your selection here. Nine of the last ten winners have had at least three runs over hurdles, eight of the last ten had won over 2m 4f and have been aged 6 or 7.

If you can get through theses two legs then you should be pretty much guaranteed a decent dividend on the Friday.

Favs:

Of the 162 places available for Placepot dividends over £1,000 13% have been filled by the fav. Obviously in most situations its only one favourite per race, 21 of the possible 52 favs have placed in placepot races for dividends over £1,000 at Cheltenham (40%). But not a single fav placed in the torpedo legs for placepots with dividends over £1,000. The Average SP for horses placing in Placepots over £1,000 is 17.

20% of placed horses have been the Fav. Of the available 174 favs 106 have placed = 60.9% of favs placing, so it is worth keeping them in to win the placepot but it isn’t going to help you find the freaky dividends. A good tactic is to use the unnamed fav for the later races with the market not being well found by the time the placepot goes live it allows you to have a couple of selections but know your covering the front of the market which can be less popular selection at the end of the day.

Favourite placing per leg all days:

Leg 1 18/29 -62%

Leg 2: 20/29 -69%

Leg 3: 14/29 - 48%

Leg 4:  17/29- 59%

Leg 5:  22/29 - 76%

Leg 6:  11/29 - 38%

Leg six in general sees the smallest number of Favs placing which makes sense as it is also the race with the highest knockout.

Leg 5 tends to be the easiest to get through with the highest number of favourites placing and the lowest % knock out on a daily basis.

% Knock Out per leg on average for dividends above £1000

Race 1: 65%

Race 2: 65%

Race 3: 70%

Race 4: 73%

Race 5: 65%

Race 6: 79%

On average you need 70% of the pool to be knocked out per race to produce a dividend over £1,000.

Torpedo leg

Race four is most often the torpedo leg for dividends over £1,000 with 4/9 torpedo legs coming in the championship race of the day. Followed by race six with two torpedo legs (Thur 2019, Wed 2015).

Field Size:

Interestingly not once when the dividend has been over £1,000 has the race with the largest number of runners been responsible for the torpedo leg. Whereas the smallest field has been 2/9 times and this isn’t down to there being less places on offer all races in Placepots which have paid over £1,000 have had the minimum 8 runners for three places. Race four (championship race) has been responsible for both these occasions. Further to that the race with the next smallest field size on the day has been responsible for the torpedo leg 2/9. Slight trend emerging that people probably focus on the races with lots of runners to perm up rather than the smaller higher quality fields where there are possibly vulnerable short priced favs to take on.

In only six races over the last seven years has the largest field size been responsible for the biggest knockout leg that day, and the smallest field size has been responsible for five of the largest knockouts on the day.

Average Placepot dividend by Day:

Tuesday: £ 11,523.11 but one outlier, £91k in 2019 otherwise no dividends above £500 – 88 runners average

Wednesday: £740.91 two dividends over £500 – 95 runners average

Thursday :£955.50 three dividends over £500 – 101 runners average

Friday: £12,971.94 five dividends over £500 – 117.6 runners average

However, the overall number of runners on the day does effect the average dividend. As you would expect the more runners the higher the average dividend, but the biggest field sizes ten not to be the largest knockout legs and certainly don’t produce the freaky dividends. So don’t get to hung up on the number of runners and the number of selections you should pick in those legs. In the big handicap fields you can often rule out half the field straight away whereas the smaller higher quality fields are more competitive hence they can produce large knock out rates with less differentiation between placepot players selections.


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