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Friday 26/04/2024

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CHANTILLY

AGUALETO
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The Prix de Saint-Desir (2yo back-end maiden race) has been an excellent producer of pattern class horses in recent years (Gold Trip, Al Hakeem, Erevann, Tribalist, American Flag) and the most recent renewal back in October certainly looks to have continued the trend. AGUALETO was just collared late on the line into third place having made most of the running under Tony Piccone. The winner, Bright Picture (102) has since won a Listed race and probably should’ve finished closer when second in the Prix Noailles (G3) second time up this season. Roshar (101) in second place won very well on his next outing, and was a good second in the Prix Machado on his three-year-old reappearance. This trio gapped the field by 2 lengths, with useful subsequent winners such as Camabaceres (90), Vertbois (98), and Speed Hunter (90) all in behind.

AGUALETO was a warm favourite when well beaten on his next outing at Saint-Cloud having travelled supremely well to the two furlong marker. He may have just been bottomed out in the closing stages, and in any case can be forgiven one bad run. His three-year-old re-appearance, having been gelded over the winter, was very promising and he would’ve finished much closer under a more positive ride. I think that is exactly what he needs and from stall 1 today we can expect/hope that Demuro has the same idea and makes plenty use of him. Given that change of tactics, I think he will be very hard to peg back this afternoon. The Botti trained American Lawyer re-opposes having been an eye-catcher from off the pace last time out, but AGUALETO travelled all over him here and I am confident he’d have finished further ahead had he either been able to get out sooner, or was ridden prominently. I also think that the AGUALETO is a much better horse on grass, whereas American Lawyer is likely to be more effective on the PSF with his action as well as pedigree.

Prix de Diane entrant Galaxie Vega is likely to attract much of the support in the pool, and stablemate Ozat who has been 2nd on his first two outings also must take a fair share. The former looked potentially smart when 2nd in an unraced fillies maiden over this course and distance last month, but the overall quality of that race is up for question thus far (3rd and 4th have been well beat in average heats) despite the Clement filly in 5th running an eye-catching race behind Piano Bar at Le Mans earlier in the week. Ozat was a solid 2nd behind the 85 rated Serquigny last time at Saint-Cloud, and I suspect that is about as good as he is.

I think AGUALETO has the potential to develop into a Listed/Group 3 sort of performer this season, and given he is ridden forward I am confident he can shed his maiden tag at the fourth time of asking. Hopefully there is a lot of support for the two Fabre runners, and there will be pool money for American Lawyer also with Soumillon in the saddle and a fair case for a form reversal. I would be recommending a 1pt win bet at £4.0 or bigger, and a 2pt win bet should he look likely to jump £6.5 or bigger (£8.20 at the time of writing).

WIN: AGUALETO 1pt Win @ £4.0 or bigger, 2pt win if £6.5 or bigger
QUINELLA: Agualeto/Galaxie Vega


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