The second day of Royal Ascot is headlined by the Prince Of Wales's Stakes, which has been won twice in the last five years by jockey Ryan Moore.
Our columnist Andrew Mount has been in red-hot form of late and joins us again to give us his thoughts and analysis on day two's action, including why he thinks their could be Moore to come in the Prince of Wales's.
14:30 - Queen Mary Stakes (5f Group 2, fillies, 2yo)
Pay close attention to what happened with the draw on day one, though bear in mind overnight watering could flip the bias from one side to another. One popular theory is that the stands’ side of the track (high draws) doesn’t dry as quickly as the far side (low draws) because the Grandstand casts a shadow over that part of the track.
Wesley Ward has a solid record in the Queen Mary and his LOVE REIGNS has to be considered for Placepot purposes though she’ll need to be top class to deny Karl Burke’s impressive Newmarket scorer DRAMATISED. David O’Meara’s MARIA BRANWELL completes the early shortlist.
15:05 - Queen’s Vase (1m6f, Group 2, 3yo)
Aidan O’Brien is the trainer to have on your side in this staying contest. He’s sent out seven winners from 27 runners in the past 15 years for a profit of £32.41 to a £1 level stake at SP. Six of the beaten horses finished second and one more grabbed third. The market doesn’t always get it right where his runners are concerned, with 20-1 shot Barbados doing best of his quartet when runner-up in the 2019 renewal. O’Brien was responsible for the Trifecta in 2018 and putting all his runners in the Placepot would have seen us safely through to the next leg in nine of the last ten years. He had five entries at the five-day stage.
15:40 - Prince Of Wales’ Stakes (1m2f Group 1, 4yo+)
This looks destined for Sir Michael Stoute’s progressive BAY BRIDGE, who was recording his fifth straight win when slamming 6-5 favourite MOSTAHDAF in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown.
Poet’s Word pulled off the Brigadier Gerard/Prince Of Wales’s double for Stoute in 2018 and the current best-price of 5-4 could look big at this time next week.
16:20 Duke Of Cambridge (1m (str) Group 2, fillies and mares, 4yo+)
There are a few interesting stats/trends associated with this race – 15 of the 18 runnings have gone to four-year-olds whereas five-year-olds are just two from 44 (expected winners = 5.16). This hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for those dropping down from Group 1 level.
Simply backing any horse who finished in the top four in a Group 2, Group 3 or Listed race last time out would have pointed us in the direction of the past ten winners (from 65 bets) for a profit of £30.16 to a £1 level stake at SP. Limiting out bets to four-year-olds only would have found nine winners from 48 qualifiers for a profit of £41.66. Current 4-1 joint-favourites SAFFRON BEACH (ran in a Group 1 contest last time) and LIGHTS ON (five-year-old) fall down on the stats and it might pay to side with Epsom Group 3 scorer BASHRIKOVA, whose record at this one-mile trip stands at 11121 (4-5), with the defeat by just half a length.
17:00 Royal Hunt Cup (1m Heritage Handicap)
Last year, those drawn high enjoyed a big advantage, but the winner still came from a low draw! That was handicap snip REAL WORLD, who hacked up by almost five lengths on the far side of the track from stall 4. He ran off a mark of 94 that day and is now rated 118. The next three home were drawn 27, 30 and 33 and I don’t think I’ll ever forgive him for ruining my high draws Trifecta.
This is obviously very tough to call without knowing the draw and how the track was riding on day one. However, one that stands out is BERINGER. He made a pleasing return to action when a 22-1 fourth at Newbury last month on his first start since August 2020. Alan King's veteran usually comes on considerably for his first run of the season and has second-time out figures of 1217 (2-4). His patient running style will be an asset.
ARATUS did really well to finish ninth from his poor low draw in the 7f Victoria Cup here last month (first three drawn 27, 26 and 28) and will be of interest if stepping up in trip for this race.
17:35 - Windsor Castle Stakes (5f Listed race, 2yos)
Those drawn near either rail have often fared well. Had we backed both the highest and lowest drawn runners in the past ten years we’d would have found five winners from our 20 bets (22-1, 20-1, 16-1, 7-1 and 7-2).
