Our top tipping Columnist is back to cast his eye over the upcoming World Pool action at Ascot this weekend on King George Diamond Day.
With Stats, Trends and a verdict on each of the seven races to help you weigh up the pros and cons, this is a must see guide before having a punt on Saturday.
13:50 Princess Margaret Keeneland Stakes (Group 3) (2yo)
Key stats and trends
Running style
Horses who made the running have failed to register a win in the past ten renewals. Prominent racers are four from 32 and hold-up horses six from 39.
Market position
SP Favourites have form figures of 1511112662 (5-10) and backing them all would have returned a profit of £2.12 to a £1 stake.
Prep race
Those who ran at Newmarket last time out are seven from 27 in the past ten years for a profit of £24.96. Horses who prepped at Ascot are 0-12. The other three winners ran at Doncaster, Haydock and Ripon.
System
Simply backing any horses who ran in the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket’s July meeting last time, regardless of where they finished, would have found six winners from 15 bets in the past ten renewals for a profit of £28.46. This angle produced the 5-1 winner and 7-1 runner-up in 2020 for a Tote Exacta of £35.70. Only backing the Duchess Of Cambridge runners who were described as ‘held up’ would have found five winners from seven bets for a profit of £33.46.
Interesting contenders
David Loughnane’s CARMELA was only fifth of the six runners in the Duchess Of Cambridge but raced close to the stands’ side rail where the ground was slower and was ridden with restraint in a race run to suit handy types. She ran with great credit in the Queen Mary Stakes the time before, staying on into a 20-1 eighth of 21, and remains open to improvement over 6f. Her stable won this two years ago.
LEZOO finished a half-length second to Mawj under a prominent ride in the Duchess Of Cambridge. She was ridden patiently when scoring at Bath/Newmarket on her first two starts and a return to such tactics could see her hard to beat.
14:25 Longines Valiant Stakes (Group 3) (3yo+)
Key stats and trends
Age
Three and four-year-olds are five winners apiece in the past ten years, though backing the classic generation blind would have returned a profit of £16.00. Four-year-olds are -£5.25 and those aged five or older are zero from six.
Prep race
A real mixed bag of tracks and classifications, including three winners who were stepping up from handicap company. A recent run would seem the most important factor with nine of the last ten winners having raced withing the past six weeks. Backing all 67 qualifiers would have returned a profit of £16.50. An in-the-frame effort was also desirable – five of the ten winners won their prep race, and four more ran second, third or fourth.
System
In the past ten years had we backed only the horses who last ran 1-41 days ago, finishing in the top four, we’d have won eight of our 42 bets and made a profit of £34.00. Three-year-olds were five from 22 (+£31.00) and four-year-olds three from 20 (+£3.00). This system drew a blank last year but produced the 11-4 runner-up and 11-1 third from three selections. It also found the £1879.50 Tote Trifecta from four picks in 2020, with the first three home priced at 12-1, 25-1 and 11-1. Worth bearing in mind when it comes to placing exotic bets this weekend, especially the Tote Swinger.
The contenders
Nine of the 14 entries fit the criteria in the system discussed above, though EIDIKOS, KIND GESTURE, OSCULA and ZANBAQ hail from the classic generation and they could be the ones to concentrate on at this very early stage.
15:00 Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)
Key stats and trends
Draw
The classy Danyah scraped home by a short head from stall 4 of 19 last year but the next three finishers were drawn high. In 2020, the first three home (adjusted for non-runners) came from stalls 18, 17 and 19 of 19, with the Tote Exacta outscoring the CSF by £68 to £53 and the Trifecta beating the tricast by £1,362 to £943. It was a similar story in 2019 when the first four finishers all came from one of the eight highest stalls. The Tote Trifecta walloped the tricast again, paying £772 to £448.
The contenders
Who doesn’t love a huge-field heritage handicap on the straight course at Ascot? This looks another belter but, with the draw not announced until the 48-hour declaration stage, we’re perhaps best sitting on our hands until then. However, I must mention ROPEY GUEST – he finds wins hard to come by, but often finishes second. I banked on the 40-1 shot for that position when getting the Trifecta up in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, though didn’t take my own advice when he was also second, this time at 11-1, in the Bunbury Cup next time. Don’t leave him out of your Placepot.
ARATUS fared third best of those to race down the nearside from their high draws when tenth of 29 in the Royal Hunt Cup and the two that beat him on his flank – fifth home Sinjaari and seventh-placed Bless Him - won next time at 7-2 and 25-1 respectively.
JUMBY has been running well all season and appreciated the step back up to 7f when third in the Bunbury Cup last time. He met trouble that day and his two course outings on good or faster going have produced a 7f win and a fine third of 26 in the Wokingham (6f).
TACTICAL had what turned out to be a poor draw in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at the Royal meeting, doing well to finish sixth of the 29 runners. He failed to see out the 1m trip when returned here next time and will be much happier back down in distance.
15:35 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes (Group 1) (3yo+)
WESTOVER was an unlucky third in the Derby and made amends with a demolition job in the Irish equivalent. He holds strong claims.
MISHRIFF found only Derby winner Adayar too good in last year’s renewal but may have to play second fiddle to the classic generation once more. He looked unlucky when a neck second to Vadeni in the Coral-Eclipse but has only landed one of his last six starts in Britain. It will be fascinating to see whether he’s asked to take on stablemate Emily Upjohn.
Being unlucky in running earlier in the season seems to be prerequisite for entrants in this year’s King George and EMILY UPJOHN certainly was when short-headed by Tuesday in the Oaks, having stumbled and lost several lengths at the start. She won her first two starts this season by a combined margin of 15 lengths and her yard won this three times with Enable.
Since stepped up to 1m or further, PYLEDRIVER has form figures in fields of nine or fewer runners of 172112122 (4-9). There were excuses for the unplaced effort, and he looks best of the outsiders. That string of small-field second places could make him of interest to run second to the field in the Tote Exacta.
16:10 Pat Eddery Stakes (Listed Race) (2yo)
Key stats and trends
Prep race
Those who ran over this 7f trip last time have fared better than their rivals who were stepping up from sprint trips (5f-6f).
The main contenders
BENACRE made an impressive winning debut over 7f at Epsom last month and the Johnston yard has a good record in this.
Charlie Appleby won this with New Science last year and was also on target with Al Dabaran in 2019. NAVAL POWER, a narrow winner at Yarmouth on his debut, was still green when scoring comfortably at Leicester and looks the obvious one.
16:45 Porsche Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+, 0-105)
Any draw bias in the International Stakes (3.00) can be followed into this race, a new addition to the King George card.
Interesting contenders
ISLA KAI has a good record outside of his seasonal debuts, recording form figures of 111120464 (4-9), improving to 1111 (4-4) on good to soft or softer going. He was the subject of quite a punt at York last time where he finished fourth over 1m on good to firm going, perhaps doing too much too soon. He looks interesting now cutting back to 7f and a thunderstorm or two wouldn’t go amiss.
TOP SECRET surprised me when going down by a nose on his reappearance at Newbury in May, as I thought he’d need the run. He bombed out at Epsom next time and was reportedly ‘never travelling’ when beating only one home over 1m at Salisbury on his latest outing. However, the drop back to 7f could suit and he hit form at about this time last season. He’s two from two over course and distance on good/faster going and could bounce back.
17:20 Garrard Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+)
Key stats and trends
A real mixed bag regarding age, draw and running style and it’s hard to narrow the field using ten-year trends. Only six runners went to post last year but the prize money has now been restored to pre-COVID levels and we should get a more competitive race this time around.
The main contenders
Last year’s winner MOUNTAIN PEAK bounced back to form with narrow course and distance win from 19 rivals earlier this month. He often comes good at this time of year, recording form figures in handicaps in July of 115243511 (4-9), suggesting he’s a solid Placepot inclusion.
Great finish! Mountain Peak JUST beats Bond Chairman in a thriller at @Ascot...@TomMarquand I @edwalkerracing pic.twitter.com/paka3Fn9dJ
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) July 9, 2022
BOND CHAIRMAN, beaten a nose by Mountain Peak over course and distance last time, should again be thereabouts.
CELSIUS has a record in handicaps from the beginning of the turf season until August 1st of 121111828511 (7-12) for a profit of £49.20 to a £1 level stake at SP. He’s unbeaten this season and can’t have the ground quick enough.
DEODAR, who was wearing blinkers for the first time, did best of those to race far side from their unfavourable high draws in the 6f three-year-old heritage handicap at Newmarket’s July festival, finishing fifth of 19 overall. Ascot should suit his patient running style and he looks very interesting now cutting back to the minimum trip for the first time in his career.
LIVE IN THE DREAM could never get involved from off the pace at Sandown last time and his wide draw was no help either. This is his time of year, and he could surprise.
