We move on to the half way stage at the Festival, day three, where there are some really fascinating races. I've put pen to paper on my selections for Thursday and shown my working out for extra marks, remember to opt-in to the Betting Tournaments to pit your wits against me!
13:30 – Turners Novices’ Chase
Key Stats & Trends
Age
Nine of the last ten winners were aged six or seven. The exception was eight-year-old Samcro in 2020.
Recent Form
Eight of the last ten winners were successful in their prep race. Backing them blind would have returned a profit of £10.20 to a £1 level stake at SP. One winner was second on his previous outing – Samcro again - and another, Black Hercules in 2016, had fallen prior to Cheltenham. Last-time-out Leopardstown winners have form figures of 1F21F3113F (4-10) for a profit of £21.00, so pay close attention to those who ran at the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF).
Class
Nine of the last ten winners had taken part in a Graded novices’ chase on their latest start.
Trainers
Willie Mullins is three from 23 in the last ten years but is showing a loss of £13.00 to a £1 level stake. Gordon Elliott is two from three in the same period (+£7.00), with the beaten horse finishing third at 9-1. All nine of Paul Nicholls’ runners were unplaced.
The Main Contenders
MIGHTY POTTER heads the antepost betting after his impressive victory at the DRF. Gordon Elliott has done well with the few runners he’s sent to this race and the six-year-old now has form figures of 1131P1111 (7-9), with the non-completion behind Constitution Hill in last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle when he had to be passed fit by the vet after colliding with a rail on the way to post. He holds obvious claims.
We learnt little about APPRECIATE IT in his first two chase starts which he won comfortable at odds of 1-5 and 1-9 and the bubble was burst at the DRF where he was ten lengths behind El Fabiolo in the Irish Arkle. He steps up in trip for the first time since his 2m4f bumper win in December 2019 and I’m happy to take him on.
BANBRIDGE went into plenty of notebooks after his staying on second to El Fabiolo in the Irish Arkle at the DRF and Joseph O’Brien’s seven-year-old is two from two at Cheltenham (one win on each course), including a festival victory in last season’s Martin Pipe. He’s sure to handle the preliminaries and looks the main danger to Mighty Potter.
SIR GERHARD’s career score stands at 1111311131 (7-9) but he was over ten lengths behind Might Potter at the Punchestown festival and jumped out to his right when beating trees on his chase debut (1-6f). He’s not for me.
The Paul Nicholls-trained STAGE STAR took his record below Grade 2 level to 1211111 (6-7) when landing the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase at Cheltenham on Trials Day. His record at a higher level reads 31PP2 (1-5), with the win in last season’s Grade 1 Challow Hurdle at Newbury. That was a weak race for the grade and, though his sound jumping will be an asset, it’s doubtful that he’ll be able to mix it with the cream of the Irish.
BALCO COASTAL, unusually for a Nicky Henderson runner, jumped poorly on his chase debut when only fifth of six in a novices’ handicap chase at Newbury for which he started as the 13-8 favourite. He won comfortably on unsuitably soft ground at right-handed Kempton next time where he was kept wide of his rivals and jumped out to his left when runner-up to the unbeaten Gerri Colombe in Grade 1 company at Sandown on his latest outing. The return to a left-handed track will suit and, if he gets good to soft or faster going, he could sneak into the frame.
Selection: Mighty Potter
14:10 – Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle
David Pipe’s THANKSFORTHEHELP impressed in landing the Chepstow qualifier last month on his first run after a wind operation. The J P McManus-owned six-year-old has never finished out of the frame in his short career and looks a major contender.
BEAR GHYLLYS finished a respectable 20-1 fourth in last month’s Chepstow qualifier and Nicky Martin’s lightly-raced eight-year-old might have needed that run to get used to the cheekpieces, which he wore for the first time that day. It’s worth remembering that he was only a 15-2 shot for the 2021 Ballymore in which he ran fourth to Bob Ollinger, Gaillard Du Mesnil and Bravemansgame.
MILL GREEN has plenty of ‘previous’ at the Cheltenham festival, running a fine 66-1 in the Martin Pipe in 2020, seventh of 22 when 40-1 for the same race in 2021 and third at 33-1 in last year’s Pertemps. He fared best of the closers when third at Haydock on last month’s belated reappearance and has solid each-way claims.
Selection: Mill Green
14:50 – Ryanair Chase
SHISHKIN was elevated to the head of the betting after his impressive 2m5f Ascot success last month and he’s going to be desperately difficult to beat if in the same form.
FURY ROAD, owned by the sponsors, is unlikely to be inconvenienced by the cut back in distance after his third to Galopin Des Champs at the DRF and looks the obvious each-way alternative.
Selection: Shishkin
15:30 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle
BLAZING KHAL returned from a break of 428 days to comfortably land the Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle from Meet And Greet at Navan on February 12th. The return to this longer trip is no issue – she won the Grade 2 Bristol Novices’ Hurdle over trip and track on her penultimate start – and her full record over 2m3f or further stands at 1111 (4-4). It’s possible that this race – just 32 days after that comeback win – may come too soon.
TEAHUPOO was only 9-1 for last season’s Champion Hurdle in which he finished ninth to Honeysuckle. He’s improved for the step up in trip this season, beating Klassical Dream into second when 20-1 for the Grade 1 Hatton’s Grace Hurdle over 2m3.5f at Fairyhouse in early December before his 15-length verdict over Summerville Boy in the Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle. He’s had his critics but has won eight of his 11 career starts and makes the shortlist.
HOME BY THE LEE has been the surprise package this season, landing a 2m4f Grade 2 at Navan in November (28-1) before his 7-1 verdict over Ashdale Bob in the Grade 1 Jack De Bromhead Christmas Hurdle over three miles at Leopardstown. Like many jumps progeny of sire Fame And Glory he’s getting better with age and he ran really well in the Stayers’ Hurdle last year, finishing sixth at 33-1. He holds obvious claims.
FLOORING PORTER, bidding for a hat-trick in this race, was beaten into second place by Sire Du Berlais at Aintree after last season’s heroics (11-8 favourite) and has had a rear view of Home By The Lee in both starts this term, finishing fourth on each occasion. It would be easy to conclude that he’s on the downgrade, but he’d drawn a blank in two runs last season before winning this third-time out and his first spring/summer start in each of the last three years has produced a win.
KLASSICAL DREAM was only fifth to Flooring Porter when the 11-4 favourite for this race last season but bounced back to win at Punchestown where he was just over one length in front of Ashdale Bob. He’s tasted Cheltenham glory before, landing the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in 2019 and his full record in March/April stands at 11151 (4-5). Perhaps we can forgive his defeat in this last year – he was reluctant to line up and raced keenly as a result – and he’s not without hope.
ASHDALE BOB has a modest strike-rate for one of his ability but seems happiest left-handed in the mud and hasn’t encountered his ideal conditions that often. He also had a spell over fences, which he didn’t take to. He perhaps doesn’t always find as much as looks likely for pressure, but the ground has come right and he has each-way claims.
PAISLEY PARK was put to the sword by French raider Gold Tweet in the Cleeve and looks an unlikely winner at the age of 11.
DASHEL DRASHER is also in the veteran stage and was three lengths behind Gold Tweet in the Cleeve. This trip stretches his stamina and he’s passed over.
GOLD TWEET highlighted the weakness of the British-trained stayers when landing the Cleeve Hurdle and should go well again.
Selection: Home By The Lee
16:10 – Magners Stable Plate Handicap Chase
This is very difficult to call without knowing the final declarations but early pace has usually been the key to finding the winner. Age has been no barrier to success and, though a 12-year-old, last year’s winner COOLE CODY cannot be ignored.
Selection: Coole Cody
16:50 – Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle
Stats/trends
Trainers
Willie Mullins won the first five runnings of this 2m1f contest (2016-2020) but his stranglehold was broken when Telmesomethinggirl scored for Henry De Bromhead in 2021. Last year, British trainers enjoyed a rare one-two in a Cheltenham festival novice hurdle with Harry Fry’s 15-2 shot Love Envoi beating Nicky Henderson’s 50-1 chance Ahorsewithnoname into second place.
Prep race
Those who ran in maiden hurdle company last time out are 0-18, including Dinoblue who was only ninth when starting as the 11-8 favourite last year. The last three winners all prepped in a Grade 2 contest confined to mares.
Placed horses
We’ve had some huge-priced runners make the frame…
2016 - Dusky Legend (2nd, 50-1)
2018 – Champagne Lady (3rd, 80-1)
2019 – Eglantine Du Seuil (won, 50-1), Concertista (2nd, 66-1)
2020 – Rayna’s World (3rd, 100-1)
2022 – Ahorsewithnoname (2nd, 50-1)
…and all the above had one thing in common – they were ridden patiently. Don’t be afraid to back an outsider, especially if they look like being ridden to pick up the pieces rather than mixing it on the front end.
LUCCIA maintained her 100% record when bolting up in a Listed novices’ hurdle at Exeter in mid-February and has now won her four starts by a combined margin of 40 lengths. She hasn’t beaten much – two of the horses who chased her him are now rated 124 and 125 – but she’s done everything impressively and it’s difficult to gauge the ceiling of her ability.
Naas.
ASHROE DIAMOND, the shortest price of the Willie Mullins entries, jumped out to her left when denying Jetara in Grade 3 company at right-handed Fairyhouse last time and should be suited by Cheltenham. Her record left-handed reads 14113 (3-5), including a comfortable Grade 2 bumper success at Aintree last spring on her only run outside Ireland. Her record in mares’ races stands at 1411 (3-4), with the fourth placed by just half a length when 16-1 for a Grade 2 bumper at Leopardstown.
LOT OF JOY, yet another Willie Mullins-trained runner, was beaten into second place at odds of 4-11f and 6-5f on her first two hurdle start before opening her account when 1-7f for a Fairyhouse maiden. No horse has yet to win this Cheltenham contest on the back of a maiden hurdle run and she makes little appeal.
MAGICAL ZOE is unbeaten in three starts – a mares’ bumper, maiden hurdle and a Grade 3 mares’ novices’ hurdle at Down Royal. She started at 18-1 ahead of her latest outing, ran green and yet still won. She could have plenty more in the tank and the absence since early November might be on account of waiting for better ground. She makes the shortlist.
YOU WEAR IT WELL failed to settle/ran green when beaten in a Ludlow bumper on her debut in January of last year and has progressed rapidly since, landing four of her five subsequent starts and finishing second at 16-1 to Hermes Allen in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle in the other. She was very impressive in landing the 2m4f Grade 2 Jane Seymour Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Sandown – a race Love Envoi won before landing this contest 12 months ago – and the daughter of Midnight Legend seems to handle any going.
AHORSEWITHNONAME was beaten by just over one length when second at 50-1 in this race last year. She won on the Flat the next twice before her fifth in the Cesarewitch, though has something to prove after pulling up at Wincanton on Boxing Day where she reportedly bled from the nose.
JETARA chased home Ashroe Diamond at Fairyhouse in late January where the small field and soft going probably didn’t play to her strengths. She’s finished in the first three in six of her seven career starts and will be suited by the likely end-to-end gallop.
The Gordon Elliott’s-trained HALKA DU TABERT was only third to Ashroe Diamond at Fairyhouse last time but didn’t look entirely happy on the right-handed track, stuttering into her hurdles and jumping out to her left on occasions. She’s two from two under Rules when racing left-handed and Cheltenham should suit.
POETIC MUSIC fared second best of the British-trained runners when a 33-1 sixth to Facile Vega in last season’s Champion Bumper but she has looked happiest on right-handed tracks since switched to hurdles.
Selection: You Wear It Well
17:30 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
Key Stats & Trends
Age
Those aged seven have won six of the past ten renewals (from 48 qualifiers) for a profit of £44.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Six-year-olds (0-11) and those aged 11+ (1-26) usually struggle.
Headgear
Nine of the last ten winners wore headgear.
Trainers
This race used to be a graveyard for the Irish, but Gordon Elliott has been responsible for three of the last seven winners if we count Mount Ida, officially in the care of Denise Foster when successful in 2021.
Official Rating
This 0-145 handicap chase often falls to a runner rated between 137 and 143, with nine of the past ten winners falling into this band.
Days Since Last Run
Six of the past ten winners had raced within the past 28 days and backing all 65 qualifiers would have returned a profit of £56.50 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Prep Race
Those who prepped at Cheltenham are 0-23 in the past ten years with only one making the frame (Potters Legend, fourth at 10-1 in 2017).
Chase Experience
Perhaps not important as it once was but it still helps to have had at least nine previous runs over fences. Those with such experience are seven from 125 in the past ten years (+£1.50 to a £1 stake) whereas those with eight or fewer chase runs to their names are three from 99 (-£68.00).
System
Since 1997 (as far back as my database goes) backing all runners aged between seven and ten, who raced within the past four weeks and who’d had at least nine previous runs over fences, would have found nine winners from 82 bets for a profit of £120.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Last year, this system produced the 40-1 winner and 66-1 third from just three qualifiers. Swapping the nine or more runs proviso for an official rating between 137 and 143 would have found eight winners from 33 bets for a profit of £76.50.
The lightly raced MR INCREDIBLE is currently the second favourite, and the stamina test of this race should suit him ideally based on his second in Warwick’s 3m5f Classic Chase in which he fared best of those to come from off the pace. He’s a recent addition to Willie Mullins all-conquering team and, surprisingly, his trainer has yet to win this contest. He lacks experience in a normally rough race, but he does have a lot of potential for improvement.
The Alanbrooke Handicap Chase
Sandown Pk 16.2.2023
Gavin Cromwell’s STUMPTOWN has taken his form to another level this year, bolting up in a 2m5.5f handicap chase at Thurles before his seven-length romp on good ground at Sandown. He should go well for his shrewd handler.
PUNITIVE improved for the move to Gordon Elliott last autumn and found only one too good in the amateur riders’ handicap chase at Cheltenham’s November meeting despite jumping out to his right. He won over 3m5f on soft ground at Fairyhouse the following month and is clearly suited by a test of stamina. He disappointed at Gowran Park in late January but will be of interest if running here.
After two years off the track, Henry De Bromhead’s ROYAL THIEF excelled on his first start back – winning easily in the Punchestown mud despite starting at 14-1. He could still be ahead of the handicapper but has only had three runs over fences.
ANIGHTINLAMBOURN has a great record on good or faster going and was last seen beating Punitive into second place in the 3m1f amateur riders’ handicap chase at Cheltenham’s November meeting. He should go well if it dries out.
CHAMBARD, who won this last year, failed to complete in his first two starts this term but showed more when fourth at Exeter last time. He could go well in his repeat attempt.
ONE MORE FLEURIE was beaten in a match at Catterick on February 13th but he’s a spring horse whose last three wins have come in March/April. He could surprise.
Selection: Stumptown
