The 3m5f Wigley Group Classic Handicap Chase at Warwick and, with the ground already described as heavy (soft in places) with showers forecast, stamina is going to be a key requirement. There are some strong trends associated with this race, which may help us to narrow the field…
Running style
Prominent racers enjoy a big advantage on the chase course at Warwick, even in huge fields. Seven of the past ten winners led or raced prominently, while only three winners (from 83) runners came from midfield or further back.
Age
Recent winners were aged between seven and 11, so I wouldn’t rule out any fancies on age grounds, especially if they are likely to race up with the pace - 11-year-old Milansbar (‘led until after 2nd, chased leader, led again 5th’) was never out of the first two when powering to an 11-length success under Bryony Frost in 2018. It takes a well-handicapped individual to win here from off the pace, such as 2017 scorer One For Arthur (rated 137), who the Grand National off 148 on his next outing.
Recent Form
Last-time-out winners have a very modest record, with just one winner from 26 runners in the past ten renewals, though five winners finished second or third in their prep race.
Recent Run
Nine of the past ten winners had raced within the last six weeks. Surprisingly, this angle eliminates half the 14-runner field.
System
Backing horses who were beaten in their prep race after making the running or racing prominently, who last ran between one and 42 days ago, would have found six winners from 49 bets for a profit of £15.50. This year’s three qualifiers are VOLCANO, COMMODORE and WOULDBEWELL.
The contenders
Willie Mullins sends MR INCREDIBLE over from Ireland and the seven-year-old’s two wins have come in big fields on left-handed tracks (both at Naas for previous handler Henry De Bromhead). He was brought down under a patient ride on his stable debut when 7-1 for a valuable handicap chase at Leopardstown and similar tactics could leave him vulnerable. Mullins hasn’t got the greatest record in handicap chases in Britain, scoring with just eight of his 167 runners this century (4.8% strike-rate) for a loss of £83.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. His only recent runner in this race was 8-1 shot Vesper Belle who unseated under a patient ride in 2014.
THREEUNDERTHRFIVE is four from four when racing on right-handed tracks and I thought he might develop into a genuine King George contender this season. However, he’s been campaigned on left-handed tracks, an odd move given that he jumped markedly out to his right when sixth to L’Homme Presse in the Brown Advisory at the Cheltenham festival on his final start last term. He unseated at the first fence when 11-1 for the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury on his latest outing and the cheekpieces, worn for the first time that day, are dispensed with. He has won left-handed over fences, including here at Warwick, but those wins came when bossing inferior opponents in small fields and I can see that right-handed tendency re-emerging. He’s not for me.
Owner J P McMcanus has a cracking record in jumps handicaps over 2m4f or further at Warwick, scoring with 16 of the 61 qualifiers since 2015 for a profit of £69.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. GUETEPAN COLLONGES scored gamely from five rivals over 3m1.5f here last time to take his chase record over trips in excess of 2m5f to 11F1 (3-4). The big field is of some concern, s he fell in a match at Sedgefield last spring and has yet to win a chase of more than seven runners.
GRUMPY CHARLEY was targeted at the Mandarin Chase at Newbury’s post-Christmas meeting, as he had been for the previous two seasons. He won with more in hand than the three-quarters of a length margin suggests, and this track should suit.
NESTOR PARK tends to race up with the pace and Ben Pauling’s course winner wasn’t beaten far into third over the extended 3m4f at Haydock last time. He’s consistent in the right grade but form figures above Class 3 level of 5067PPP (0-7) suggest that we might be best advised to downgrade his claims at a single-figure price.
IWILLDOIT hacked up by nine lengths in the 2021 Welsh Grand National when we last saw, taking his handicap record in December/January to 161611 (4-6) for a profit of £26.25. He’s won when fresh before and could go well.
Alan King has plenty of ‘previous’ in this race and 2021 winner NOTACHNCE is 9lb lower this time around. However, he was only eighth last year and his record since winning this race stands at PPP68234 (0-8) and he looks poor value at around 9-1.
LORD DU MESNIL loves the mud but he’s 0-9 since scoring at Haydock almost two years ago and has been off for 66 days.
COMMODORE tends to go from the front which makes him of immediate interest. Last month’s comeback run (fifth) at Cheltenham – his first start since last season’s Grand National 12th – was probably needed and he made all for a six-length win on his only previous chase outing at Warwick.
VOLCANO was just denied at Ludlow last time and will be happier back at Warwick where his record reads 1111 (4-4). He’s up in class but those course figures are persuasive.
FORTESCUE was pulled up in the Welsh Grand National and has yet to win in a field of more than nine runners. He might be able to stay on from the rear into a place once the field thins out in the closing stages – as he did in the Becher Chase on his penultimate start (fourth of 22) - but I’m leaving him out of Trifecta calculations.
Sandy Thomson has a fantastic record in the winter months and has started the new year in great heart. DINGO DOLLAR found L’Homme Presse & Co too hot in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle and might do better this time. He’s been ridden patiently in his recent starts but did used to front-run, including when a close second in the 2021 Scottish Grand National, and reverting to such tactics could see him out-run his odds. However, the ground looks too soft for him and he’s reluctantly left out of the final perm.
WOULDUBEWELL wasn’t disgraced in the Welsh Grand National (28-1 sixth of 17) but her three wins under Rules have come against her own sex in fields of five or fewer runners.
Trifecta Selections
Winner: Volcano
Second: Commodore
Third: Iwilldoit
