It's time for the second tournament of the World Pool series and we head south to Epsom Downs for the greatest race on turf, The Derby. Ahead of the World Pool card I've had a look at the card and pointed out all the trends you need to know. To join me in the tournament, you can opt-in here.
12.50 – Diomed Stakes
HIGHLAND AVENUE heads the antepost market for this Group 3 contest on the strength of his front-running third to stablemate Adayar in the Gordon Stakes at Newmarket last month. However, that run came on soft ground and he could be vulnerable on the likely quicker going. Throw in his seven-race losing streak which stretches back to April 2021 and odds of 7-4 start to look skinny.
The next two in the betting – AL MUBIR (prefers soft/heavy going) and REACH FOR THE MOON (often beaten at short odds) – also look worth taking on. MARIE’S DIAMOND, a close second in a hot handicap at York’s Dante meeting last month, has a great record in June/July and could go well at big odds, while ESCOBAR, fourth at 18-1 last year, would have a squeak. Confidence in that pair will increase if they are drawn low, as the last seven winners came from stalls 1, 2 or 3.
13.30 - The Derby
The draw has an important role to play over this course and distance, with stall 1 providing just two winners from 139 runners in fields of 10+ this century. AUGUSTE RODIN is surely better than he showed when beaten by 22 lengths in the 2000 Guineas (13-8 favourite) but his current price of 3-1 looks desperately short, especially if the ground is genuinely good or faster.
MILITARY ORDER, the 4-1 second favourite at the time of writing, impressed me when landing the Lingfield Derby Trial on the Polytrack as he challenged on the inside rail where the artificial surface was slowest. He’s three from three since his debut and Charlie Appleby has landed two of the past five renewals.
PASSENGER was desperately unlucky when third in the Dante and would surely have won granted a clear passage. That was only his second career start, and he should have plenty more to offer. His connections paid £85,000 to supplement for this race.
Progeny of the sire Churchill rarely win on their debuts, especially on turf, and SPREWELL went into my tracker after an eye-catching 16-1 fourth of 15 at Gowran Park on his debut last October, doing clear best of those to come from off the pace. He’s two from two this season, with both wins on soft/heavy going, and looks ready for the step up to 1m4f.
DUBAI MILE had ARREST just behind him in second place when landing the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud over 1m2f last autumn and was clearly unsuited by the cut back in trip when fifth in the 2000 Guineas. He looks a major player.
14.10 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes
It’s good to see POTAPOVA back on the track after she pulled up with an irregular heartbeat at Goodwood on her reappearance four weeks ago. She was second in this race last year behind 2-1 favourite Baskirova and has solid claims.
ROMAN MIST fared best of those to race up with the pace when third in this race last year for Tom Ward. She scored gamely from the front on her debut for Archie Watson last month and should go well again.
ASTRAL BEAU has been in fine form for the Pam Sly yard but would prefer deep ground and all her wins have come on straight tracks.
PROSPEROUS VOYAGE heads the betting at around the 2-1 mark but was flattered by last year’s Falmouth win over Inspiral, as she raced wide on the better ground. She’s 0-3 since and looks worth opposing.
SHAARA got stuck in the mud at Newmarket last time and looks interesting now cutting back in trip on faster going.
14.45 – Aston Martin 3YO “Dash” Handicap
HARRY BROWN, yet to finish out of the first three in ten career starts, and CAN TO CAN, impressive from the front at Newcastle last time, are both of interest at this early stage.
15.20 – Aston Martin “Dash” Handicap
High draws have traditionally fared best in 5f races at Epsom, but early speed is perhaps more important, something perfectly illustrated by Ornate in 2019 who broke smartly from the widest draw in stall 1 of 19 and duly made all at odds of 33-1.
The first four home last year were drawn in the bottom half of the field (stalls 10, 2, 4 and 9 of 20) and a low draw can guarantee a clear passage, whereas the high-drawn runners often meet crowding on the stands’ side rail. Had we bet stalls 1 and 2 blindly in the past ten renewals of the “Dash” we’d have found four winners and made a profit if £108.00 to a £1 level stake at SP.
This angle would have got us through the Placepot in seven of the past ten years and, last year, 50-1 shot Mountain Peak (stall 2) nearly boosted the profits further, finishing second by a head. This race will need more work when the drawn is known but it’s interesting to see MOUNTAIN PEAK entered again.
15.55 – Ebbisham Handicap
No winning favourite and winners at 28-1 and 25-1 (twice) in the past ten years (nine renewals) illustrate just how tricky this 1m2f handicap for three-year olds is. Sylvester Kirk has saddled eight runners with three winning (25-1, 16-1 and 10-1) and another finishing second (8-1).
He’s not been represented since 2018, so it’s interesting to see CHINDWIN, 100-1 at the time of writing, appear among the five-day entries. His chance is far from obvious – he finished last of 11 when 66-1 on his handicap debut at Goodwood – but those trainer stats are persuasive.
Andrew Balding has taken three of the last five renewals and KADOVAR, his sole entry, won by almost ten lengths over the extended mile trip on his penultimate start. It should pay to forgive his subsequent Newmarket defeat, though he has yet to race on ground faster than good to soft.
16.30 – Rio Ferdinand Foundation Northern Dancer Handicap
MAX MAYHEM (also entered in the 3.45 here on Friday) won with something up his sleeve over the 1m3f trip at Kempton last time and progeny of his sire New Bay do exceptionally well in handicaps on the back of a top-three finish, landing 69 of their 211 starts (32.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £114.07 to a £1 level stake at SP.
HALIPHON, second by a nose at 25-1 in this race last year, will be a similar price this time around are two heavy defeats this term but could bounce back.
17.05 – JRA Tokyo Trophy Handicap
Most people look forward to Christmas, but I count the days until June 1, or ‘MR WAGYU Day’ as it should be known. John Quinn’s gelding rarely shows much before this date but comes alive when the summer arrives, landing 15 of his 30 starts in June/July for a profit of £69.35 to a £1 level stake at SP (he’s 0-43 outside of this two-month period).
He finished second, third or fourth in ten of the 15 defeats, often in some of the most competitive sprint handicaps of the season, and he won this race last term at 12-1 having been backed late from 16-1. He hinted at an imminent return to form when a 40-1 seventh of 21 at York last time and should go close in his bid to repeat last year’s heroics.
PROBE has two wins and a second to his name from three runs for Jennie Candlish and looks the obvious threat.
