Ahead of Sunday's New Year's Day Betting Tournament, I've taken an early look at the Cheltenham card and hopefully found some winners!
12:10 – Ballymore Maiden Hurdle (Class 2)
Nicky Henderson’s FIRESTEP, unbeaten in two bumpers, returns from a break of 651 days. The form of his latest win didn’t work out, but he’s had wind surgery since and has to be respected. However, he’ll have to be at the top of his game to get the better of WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT, winner of a point-to-point and Newbury bumper before his fine third to Hermes Allen in a Grade 2 novices’ hurdle here in November. He was due to step up to three miles here in December before the meeting was abandoned but is still likely to prove hard to beat.
12:45 – AIS Handicap Chase (Class 2)
This race has thrown up a few surprises over the years, not least the 50-1 success of Tour Des Champs in 2017 and Mon Parrain’s 25-1 win two years earlier. In the past ten years (only eight renewals because of abandonments), horses who ran first, second or third in their prep race are just one from 31 for a loss of £23.00 to a £1 level stake at SP, suggesting that we should look beyond the obvious.
Had we simply bet all runners who finished fourth or worse in a Class 1 contest last-time out would have found six winners from 26 bets for a profit of £68.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. This angle has thrown up six of the past seven winners and also produced the 33-1 third from three qualifiers in the only blank year (2020). THE WOLF, FOUND ON, SWITCH HITTER and MINELLA BOBO all fit the bill.
13:20 – Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
The form of MONMIRAL’s seven-length Warwick second to Jonbon has been franked by the winner but he’s now lost four in a row and is not sure to appreciate the return to this longer trip.
THUNDER ROCK was beaten on his point-to-point, bumper and hurdles debut but his record in other circumstances stands at 11119111 (7-8). He’s up in class but will certainly be going in my Placepot. BEAUPORT would prefer softer going.
13:55 – New Year’s Day Handicap Chase (Class 1)
WAR LORD was a big eyecatcher when third to Greaneteen in the Haldon Gold Cup on his reappearance. He looked in need of the race and became detached on ground plenty quick enough for him before staying on again over the 2m1.5f trip. His yard almost landed the Welsh Grand National earlier this week with The Big Breakaway and he looks sure to relish the return to this longer trip. Any rain would help.
IL RIDOTO returned from wind surgery to finish an 8-1 fourth of 14 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and should again be thereabouts, as should Dan Skelton’s MIDNIGHT RIVER, third in that contest. Midnight River often bounces back from a defeat to score at the next time of asking and his full record following a loss reads 3111FF7131 (5-10).
COCONUT SPLASH has won just a Wetherby maiden hurdle (when the 4-6 favourite) from ten starts under Rules but has finished second or third his other eight completed starts (he fell at the last flight at Newbury on one occasion when also looking set to finish second or third). The form of his Wetherby comeback third to Into Overdrive has been well advertised by the winner and he’s likely to appreciate the big field/strong pace scenario. If we include his point-to-point form, his record in fields of ten or more runners reads 12F1 (2-4), with the runner-up effort by a nose at 14-1.
SHAKEM UP’ARRY will be popular after his Exeter win earlier this month but he has never won back-to-back races and his record in fields of 12 or more runners reads 322044803 (0-9).
HAPPYGOLUCKY finished a fine third to L’Homme Presse and Into Overdrive in the Rehearsal Chase on his return from a 559-day absence and his two previous runs on Cheltenham’s New Course produced a novice chase win and 25-1 fourth of 23 in the Martin Pipe.
14:30 – Relkeel Hurdle (Grade 2)
The Relkeel looks more competitive than usual thanks to the abandonment of the International Hurdle at Cheltenham’s December meeting. With FIRST STREET and I LIKE TO MOVE IT not certain to appreciate the step up from two miles, this looks best left to the reappearing MARIE’S ROCK.
15:05 – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Last year’s winner DOLPHIN SQUARE was fortunate to score narrowly at Sandown last time but is still worthy of consideration, though strong preference is for the Warren Greatrex-trained ABUFFALOSOLDIER. He had more in hand than the three-quarters of a length winning margin suggested at Newbury last time and now has form figures outside his seasonal debuts of 1101 (3-4), improving to 111 (3-3) on good to soft or faster going only.
15:40 – JCB “Junior” National Hunt Flat Race
I’ve no strong opinion on the ‘lucky last’ though PERIBONKA RIVER impressed at Wetherby on her debut and Hughie Morrison’s GALLANT APPROACH is an interesting newcomer.
