As we move into the Flat season proper it's time to begin the World Pool Series of Betting Tournaments, starting with the 2000 Guineas Betting Tournament. Ahead of the the Rowley mile's flagship meeting I've taken an in depth ook at the card and found some betting formulas. Remember, if you want to play in the Tournament you can opt-in here.
13:40 – Howden Handicap
Newmarket’s World Pool card gets underway with this competitive Class 2 handicap over the 1m4f trip. Four-year-olds have a good record, landing eight of the past nine renewals and ignoring those aged five or older helps us to narrow the 18-runner field to just eight. This has been a good meeting for the Johnston yard, and they took this race in 2019 and in 2021.
CAPITOL THEORY will be popular after last week’s runner-up effort at Ripon but his prominent running style was strongly favoured that day and he may have been flattered. Stablemate DUBAI LEADER was only eighth on his comeback at Kempton, but he failed to settle on his first start since gelded and might do better back on turf with that run behind him.
HIGH FIBRE had some good form here for Ralph Beckett, scoring by five lengths in a 1m1f handicap at the end of the 2021 season before going down by a nose on his sole start last term. He’s been gelded since and is a fascinating runner on his debut for Harry Fry.
14:15 – Howden British EBF Ellen Chaloner Stakes
Four-year-old Umm Kulthum broke a sequence of winning three-year-olds when taking this 6f Listed contest 12 months ago, though the classic generation could bounce back with AZURE ANGEL, PERDIKA or QUEEN OLLY, who all receive a 10lb weight for age allowance. The last-named, owned by Amo Racing, was only eighth of 15 in the Nell Gwyn Stakes over 7f here on her reappearance and first start for George Boughey but didn’t get much cover and raced keenly in the early stages. The daughter of No Nay Never is likely to do better now down in trip and class.
The case for the older brigade is strong, especially with the Michael Dods-trained four-year-old AZURE BLUE. She improved from a handicap mark of 78 to 98 last season, signing off with a course and distance win in a fillies’ Listed contest. A big field/strong pace scenario will be perfect for her.
14:50 – Home Of Racing Handicap
This heritage handicap has 25 entries at the four-day stage and will need more work once the final declarations and drawn are known. However, there are a few on my radar at this early stage including course expert EQUIANO SPRINGS, whose record on the Rowley Mile reads 11118 (4-5), with the sole defeat coming on unsuitably soft going on last month’s reappearance.
SILVER SAMURAI improved when cut back to 6f last year, landing good-ground handicaps at Haydock and Newbury. He’s not certain to appreciate the stiff uphill finish but I’m loathe to rule him out.
BLACKROD won this for the Michael Dods yard last year and though well held on his debut for Roger Fell last month, finishing 10th of 12 on the all-weather at Kempton, it’s interesting to see that Oisin Murphy has already been booked for the ride.
15:25 – Suffolk Stakes
Another valuable heritage handicap, this time over the Cambridgeshire course and distance.
EMPIRESTATEOFMIND did well to finish seventh of 22 in the Lincoln, as he was always prominent in a race run to suit the closers. He narrowly failed to land a gamble over 1m here next time, finding Bopedro half a length too good after being backed from 8-1 into 7-2 favouritism. He’s rarely out of the first two or three when given a trip of 1m-1m1f on genuinely good or softer going and won’t mind if conditions ease.
TURNTABLE has joined Harry Eustace after Chris Wall’s retirement and the seven-year-old was a standing dish at this venue for his old yard. His record on the Rowley Mile when not wearing headgear reads 11211 (4-5), with the sole defeat by just half a length at 12-1.
16:00 – Palace House Stakes
The draw played a big part in this 5f Group 3 contest last year when the Charles Hills-trained Khaadem, wearing the Fitri Hay colours, raced virtually alone on the far side of the track from his stall 1 draw and held on to win by a neck.
EQUILATERAL bids to score for the same connections but he needs genuinely fast going and looks unlikely to encounter it.
MANACCAN took off in the second half of last season, landing an Ascot handicap off a mark of 101 before taking two Listed races and a Group 3. Since fitted with a tongue-tie his record reads 2131311 (4-7) but he’s improved for his reappearance effort in the each of the past two seasons and offers of around 4-1 could be on the skinny side.
LIVE IN THE DREAM tends to thrive in the spring and, since gelded, his 5f record in March, April or May reads 41111 (4-5). Those wins came in handicap company but the stiff track will suit and he deserves a crack at Group level.
16:40 - Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes
Nine of the last ten winners were successful in their prep race and backing them blind would have returned a small profit at SP. The exception as 2014 winner Night Of Thunder, runner-up to Kingman in the Greenham Stakes on his reappearance. This year, only six of the 15 entries were successful on their latest outing, though Chaldean should get a pass as he unseated on his comeback.
The Aidan O’Brien-trained AUGUSTE RODIN heads the betting after his impressive victory in the Group 1 Vertem Futurity Stakes at Doncaster last October, a win that took his record since his racecourse debut to 111 (3-3). He holds obvious claims. Stablemate LITTLE BIG BEAR was short-headed on his debut but won his next four, bolting up by seven lengths in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh on his most recent outing. He’ll be a danger to all if staying this trip.
At a much bigger price, Charlie Johnston’s DUBAI MILE looks interesting if taking this route rather than heading to France. The son of Roaring Lion was only fourth at Redcar when favourite for his racecourse debut last July but recorded form figures of 1121 (3-4) subsequently, with the defeat by just half a length over the 2000 Guineas course and distance when 16-1 for the Royal Lodge Stakes. He scored narrowly over 1m2f in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud on his most recent outing and won’t mind if conditions ease.
Karl Burke’s FLIGHT PLAN did well to finish a neck second in a 1m Listed race at Newcastle last time, as he got into a duel for the lead from some way out with Benacre. The pair of them helped to set the race up for the closers – the winner and third came from well off the pace – and Flight Plan but daylight between himself and Benacre.
The Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo). Royal Ascot 18.6.2022
HOLLOWAY BOY, a stablemate of Flight Plan, was a little wayward in the first-time visor when third in the Vertem Futurity and was probably unsuited by the heavy ground too. He won first-time up at two and it will be interesting to see if the headgear is retained. Christophe Soumillon is an eyecatching jockey booking.
17:15 – Newmarketracecourses.co.uk Handicap
CLEARPOINT was only fifth at Thirsk on his comeback but ‘won’ the race in the centre group and might have been unlucky. He steps back up to 6f for the first time since his impressive juvenile debut success.
