Saint-Cloud Racing - 22nd October – Criterium Day
The last 2-year-old Group 1s of the French season take place at Saint-Cloud on Sunday afternoon in what are likely to be very testing conditions. At the time of writing (Friday morning), the ground is described as Soft, with a 3,5 reading on the penetrometer. However, there is significant rainfall forecast before we get to Sunday and the ground is likely to be fairly deep by the time that racing gets underway at 12:23. If, as I expect, the ground does deteriorate, then it can largely pay to ignore the draw in these races and focus more on the pace angles. On deep ground, there is a very significant bias on the stands side rail and the horses that can get the first run on that strip of ground will have an enormous advantage.
We start at 12:23 with the Group 3 Prix De Flore for the 3-year-old Fillies. Village Voice for Jessica Harrington is the only British or Irish representative, and she sets a fair standard of form after finishing 3rd in a Group 3 at Fairyhouse last time behind a pair of Joseph O’Brien runners, but this will be deeper ground than she is used to, and I suspect that the race will setup better for the French runners. Rainbow Sky improved for the step up to 12-furlongs when winning a Listed race at Toulouse last time and although she drops back to 2,100 metres here, the testing ground should still make it a suitable test. The concern with her would be the lack of pace, although she may well be sent forwards, but if this does develop into a sprint, she is surely vulnerable to a turn-of-foot, most likely from Une Perle. She bolted up when winning at La Teste last time and even though this will be much deeper ground, her pedigree suggests she won’t be too inconvenienced by it and if it does become a dash from the 3-furlong pole, I think she is the fastest horse in the race.
However, when trying to anticipate where the value may lie in this market, I think I have found it in the only Filly in this race who doesn’t currently have any Black-Type on her CV. Tygress is a daughter of the dual Oaks winner Sariska and she improved significantly for a step up in trip and softer going to win her maiden at Dieppe in August. That form is nothing special, but she was a 3-length fourth in the Prix de Psyche at Deauville the time before and the form of that race is strong enough to suggest that she will be able to hold her own in this company. The further she went, the better she looked at Dieppe and she was fully 4-lengths clear of Andraste at the line, who played her part to boost the form by winning a maiden next time. Tygress has had a lighter campaign than most of this field and looks likely to remain in training for next season, but this is a good opportunity to get that Black Type for her Broodmare career and she looks a fair bet win and place.
Race 2 is the first of the Group 1 contests and it is a shame that we only have 7 going to post for each-way punters. The Aiden O’Brien pair of Illinois and Los Angeles could be anything and both won their maidens well enough to suggest it is worth connections rolling the dice here. It’s almost impossible to compare their form and so I have decided to leave the race, for all that I think the only Filly, Shiffrin, is of some interest after she beat the boys in the Prix de Conde at Chantilly last time. I have tried and failed to form a pace map for this, so there is too much guesswork involved but I would add one further point about the recent trends from this contest. Since 2013, the winners of this race have managed just 1 win between them as 3-year-olds, whereas the horses who were soundly beaten have fared much better. The likes of Capri, Wings of Eagles, Cloth of Stars and Bolshoi Ballet were all no more than “also-rans” in this race before going on to top level success, so it should pay to look out for those who fill the places next season.
There is a much more obvious angle into the Criterium International at 1:33. Navy Seal and Portland represent Aiden O’Brien, but I am yet to be convinced that either of them is really a Group 1 performer and so I’m happy enough to nail my colours to the mast of the home team and in particular, Alcantor. Although he was behind Havana Cigar at Chantilly back in July, the step up to a mile has been the making of him and he readily reversed that form when winning the Prix Thomas Bryon over this course and distance last month. Continuous won that race in 2022 and Alcantor looks to be on a similar upward curve as he stretches out in trip. It was very eye-catching to see him travel so strongly into the latter stages of the race last time and even though this will be run on a more testing surface, his relaxed nature would suggest that it won’t be an issue and with a clear run in the straight, I expect him to win.
After the Group 1 races things become a little more dififcult to read and as much as I enjoy getting stuck into the 16-runner handicaps, on soft ground with a significant track bias it is hard to form a strong opinion. Instead, my final selection will come in the Group 3 Prix Perth at 2:50. This race looks to revolve around Tribalist for Andre Fabre. He has won 4 of his last 5 races and although he was beaten in this race last season, the form of the winner, Facteur Cheval, would suggest that he still ran his race. The switch to front running tactics has really helped him and although he has been off since June, he looks likely to lead and it is hard to see him finishing out of the frame, for all that the rain is probably a slight negative.
I won’t be surprised if Tribalist bounces out and makes all, but he isn’t likely to represent much value in this market and so I am keen to find a horse to take him on with. There are several clues to take from my selection, The Revenant, but the booking of Ryan Moore to ride is the most obvious one. This will be just the second ride that Ryan Moore has taken for the Graffard team and having the world’s best jockey on board can only be a plus. The yard has been in great form recently and this looks to be the end of a season long plan for one of their greatest servants. The Revenant has a great record at the track and after missing the summer to wait for softer ground, he made a really pleasing comeback from a break when 3rd behind Poker Face at Deauville in August. That should have put him spot on for this and it is probably a tip that his connections have chosen to come here rather than go to Ascot as they have in previous seasons. The presence of Tribalist should set the race up nicely for him and he is unlikely to get a better opportunity for one last day in the spotlight.
Selections-
12:23 – Tygress (Win and Place)
1:33 – Alcantor (Win)
2:50 – The Revenant (Win and Place)
