On to Day two of the Dublin Racing Festival Tournaments and we've a eight-race card in prospect. I've followed on from my Day One thoughts with an in-depth look at Sunday's card and hinted how I'll be playing in the competition.
13:10 – Irish Stallions Farms EBF Paddy Mullins Mares Handicap Hurdle (Grade B)
Since the value of this race was greatly increased in 2018, all the winners finished in the top four in their prep race. Those who ran fifth or worse last-time out were 0-36, though most were big prices. We wouldn’t have made a profit by backing all 58 horses who finished in the top four in their prep race, though simply backing those who did so in a Class A contest would have found five winners from 17 bets for a profit of £27.08 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Gordon Elliott’s LIBERTY DANCE, the 7-2 antepost favourite, qualifies on this angle, as does Henry De Bromhead’s 12-1 shot RIOGA CHOICE.
13:40 – Ladbrokes Novice Chase (Grade 1)
Willie Mullins has won this six times in the past ten years, including the last three renewals with Galopin Des Champs, Monkfish and Faugheen. For once, he’s not responsible for the market leader, that honour goes to Gordon Elliott’s MIGHTY POTTER, two from two over fences and very impressive when accounting for the Mullins-trained GAILLARD DU MESNIL in Grade 1 company at Fairyhouse in early December.
The last-named, possibly given too much to do that day, went one better when upped to three miles in the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase at Leopardstown just after Christmas. He was ridden closer to the pace and a similar ride would give him prospects of reversing the form at a course he clearly loves – his full record here now reads 1131 (3-4), with the third place at 33-1 when never able to strike a blow behind stablemate Galopin Des Champs in this race 12 months ago.
14:10 – Ladbrokes Dublin Chase (Grade 1)
BLUE LORD bids to make it six wins from six runnings of this Grade 1 contest for Willie Mullins after the victories of Min (2018, 2019) and Chacun Pour Soi (2020, 2021, 2022). He was only third to Edwardstone in last season’s Arkle Chase at the Cheltenham festival but his record in Ireland, since fitted with a tongue-tie, reads 111111 (6-6), including an impressive victory over course and distance in the Grade 1 Paddy’s Reward Club Chase over Christmas.
Alan King’s 11-year-old SCEAU ROYAL, in the same ownership as Blue Lord, has only scored once from 17 starts in Grade 1 company but will appreciate the small field and could out-run his odds. He’s won 15 of his 31 career starts in fields of six or fewer runners (+£11.44 to a £1 level stake at SP) and finished as runner-up on eight occasions. The Blue Lord/Sceau Royal Tote Exacta could be the way to play this race.
14:40 – Bulmers Handicap Chase (Grade A)
Those punters looking for a big return to a small stake in the hope of winning the Tote betting tournament might want to concentrate on this race. In 2020 the first three home were priced at 33-1, 33-1 and 14-1, with the Tote Exacta paying a whopping £3,134,30 and massively outscoring the CSF (£912.86). in 2021, the first three were priced at 10-1, 15-2 and 28-1, with the Exacta again proving much better value than the CSF (£135.60 compared to £79.96).
Last year, we had a winning favourite in the shape of 9-2 shot Birchdale but he was chased home by a pair of 33-1 shots. Owner J P McManus had the first/third last year, the winner/runner-up in 2021 and the winner/third in 2020. He’s likely to be mob-handed but perming his runners in Tote exotic bets could pay dividends.
15:10 – Chanelle Pharma Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)
It’s very difficult to look beyond the Willie Mullins-trained STATE MAN, who stuck two fingers up at the British handicapper when comfortably landing the County Hurdle off a mark of 141 at last season’s Cheltenham festival. He’s three from three since that smooth success, with all the wins coming in Grade 1 company, including over course and distance last time when laughing at stablemates Vauban and Sharjah in the Matheson Hurdle.
15:40 - Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
FACILE VEGA, odds-on for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at next month’s Cheltenham festival, is likely to go off at very short odds here. His jumping wasn’t especially fluent when he landed odds of 2-9 in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle over trip and track last time and the only other runners to start shorter than 33-1 in that contest were his stablemate Il Etait Temps, Ashroe Diamond and Intranet. This is much tougher and I’d be inclined to take him on.
HIGH DEFINITION bolted up in a course and distance maiden hurdle on Boxing Day despite jumping out to his right and could provide a stern challenge. He was a classy performer on the Flat (the one-time favourite for the Epsom Derby) and is open to plenty of improvement over jumps. INTHEPOCKET could prove to be a dangerous rival.
